Quote:The nation's most overrated players
Why Lattimore, Jones, Mathieu rank among the most overhyped

Originally Published: July 25, 2012
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

This is the time of year when college football hype is in full effect via the release of the 15 preseason award watch lists that include a staggering total of 482 separate players.

As enjoyable as basking in the potential glory of an exciting season can be, for many of those players the level of hype they are receiving isn't entirely warranted.

Nine players who fit this description as overrated players are:

Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina Gamecocks

This analysis needs to start by making one point crystal clear -- Lattimore's inclusion on this list is not an indictment of his talent level, as his elite physical skills are undisputed.

What is in dispute is Lattimore's track record. He ranked fifth out of six SEC "bell cow" running backs in an Insider analysis I did in July 2011 that reviewed the 2010 performance of each of those ball carriers in a wide variety of metrics.

Last season Lattimore got off to a very good start with 534 rushing yards in the first three games but it has to be noted that two of those contests were against East Carolina and Navy, non-BCS conference teams that ended the season ranked 81st and 92nd, respectively, in the Football Bowl Subdivision rush yards per game allowed category.

After that great start against mostly overmatched competition, Lattimore's performance tailed off as he racked up only 284 yards on 76 carries (3.7 yards per rush) in the next four contests.

Lattimore's inconsistent track record is compounded by his having to come back from a midseason ACL injury. His progress on the injury recovery front is impressive (he looks to be on track to start preseason camp in August) but when that element is added the other issues, it shows Lattimore has some hurdles to overcome to reach his potential. In a league with fellow first-team All-SEC pick Knile Davis of Arkansas and Alabama's Eddie Lacy (who is poised for a breakout season after last year's 7.1 ypc total), it's going to be tough for Lattimore to emerge as the conference's best back.

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Aaron Murray, QB, Georgia Bulldogs

Murray has certainly showcased his superb skills over the past two seasons but last year also brought to light a weakness in his game. As noted in this March Insider article, Murray saw a significant decrease in productivity when the statistics for Orson Charles and Malcolm Mitchell were removed from his metric mix. The best quarterbacks find a way to get high-level productivity out of second-tier players (as Brandon Weeden and Robert Griffin III did last season) and Murray has yet to show that he can do that.

Moreover, his 7.8 overall yards per attempt average (YPA) for the season ranked only 32nd in the nation, behind returning SEC QBs Tyler Wilson and AJ McCarron and barely ahead of South Carolina's Connor Shaw and Missouri's James Franklin. So Murray may have some work to do in order to remain among the SEC's best passers.

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Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma Sooners

Jones suffers from some of the same issues as Murray in that his YPA took a big drop with the removal of a top pass-catcher (7.6 YPA versus BCS teams with Ryan Broyles, 7.1 YPA without), but even with Broyles in the lineup, Jones' résumé has some significant issues.

According to cfbstats.com, Jones' 135.4 passer rating against BCS-caliber teams ranked fourth in the Big 12 and was only a few rating points ahead of Case McCoy, Seth Doege, Ryan Tannehill and Collin Klein. This type of performance is almost certainly the justification many are using to place West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith ahead of Jones as the Big 12's best passer despite the fact most of Smith's 2011 aerial stats were tallied against the weaker secondaries of the Big East.

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Nigel Malone, CB, Kansas State Wildcats

Malone won a spot on the first-team All-Big 12 squad last year in large part because of his conference-leading seven interceptions, but coverage issues off-set more than a few of those picks. Malone's 7.6 overall yards per attempt (YPA) allowed mark and 12.0 vertical YPA were subpar totals and served as two main reasons he ranked fifth in my recent ranking of the 2012 Big 12 Thorpe Award candidates.

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Cobi Hamilton, WR, Arkansas Razorbacks

Hamilton does bring some skills to the pass-catching table, as his 9.1 short pass YPA against BCS conference foes helped him earn inclusion on my list of top SEC quarterback/wide receiver tandems.

Having said that, Hamilton paired that terrific productivity mark on dink-and-dunk throws with an abysmal 6.3 vertical YPA and an equally bad 5.9 stretch vertical YPA (vertical passes being those thrown 11 or more yards downfield, stretch verticals being thrown 20 or more yards). Those YPA marks would be below average at any level, but they are especially damaging on downfield throws. The aforementioned article on SEC passing combos contains as many as five wideouts capable of posting elite downfield YPA totals, so Hamilton will have to see a quantum leap in his vertical productivity to win honors as a top conference wideout.

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Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU Tigers

His 8.8 YPA in a seven-game analysis of the toughest passing offenses LSU faced last year (of which Mathieu played in only six because of a suspension) was higher than the YPA marks posted by Morris Claiborne (7.5) and Tharold Simon (3.6) in those same contests.

Mathieu didn't make up for the higher YPA in the interception department, either, as his two picks were only equal to Simon's interception mark and were far behind Claiborne's team-leading six picks. Mathieu's big-play potential on special teams would certainly warrant his selection as a top player in that area, but when it comes to cornerback play, his history says he is more apt to give up a big play than he is to make one.

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Joe Vellano, DL, Maryland Terrapins

Vellano had an eye-popping 20 tackles against Georgia Tech last year but he also had four games with four or fewer tackles, had only 2.5 sacks and tallied only one quarterback hurry. This shows he can be dominant in certain situations but when it comes to consistent impact performance, Vellano is a few steps behind the best defensive linemen in college football. He was a first-team all-ACC pick last season, but don't be surprised if he falls short of that level this season.

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Bacarri Rambo, S, Georgia Bulldogs

When a cornerback allows a big play, he can sometimes be forgiven for it because he may have been operating under the assumption that a safety would be there to help him over the top. In Rambo's case, his 10.1 YPA on plays where he was in one-on-one coverage is unacceptable because, being the safety, he knows that no one will be able to help him out.

A repeat of the eight interceptions that led to his being named first-team All-SEC last year is unlikely because Rambo is serving a four-game suspension, but given the shaky state of the Georgia secondary overall, the Bulldogs' defense would be best served if Rambo were to step his coverage skills up.

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Ricardo Allen, CB, Purdue Boilermakers

The Big Ten is not one of the stronger conferences when it comes to the cornerback position (their top CB would have a tough time ranking among the top five cornerbacks in the Big 12). That is part of the reason Allen has been getting some preseason push as an All-Big Ten cornerback candidate.

However, Allen's 8.5 overall YPA and 11.0 vertical YPA were well below-average marks and not even the best on his club. The Boilermakers will need to get more out of him when they face the passing attacks of Notre Dame, Michigan and Wisconsin among their first six games.

(07-27-2012 12:38 PM)mdrake34 Wrote:  I'm extremely tempted to post this in the official board's College Sports forum just to watch the inevitable shit storm.