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I don't understand all the Dirk negativity-LONG READ - DaMeatTrough - 01-16-2012 02:37 AM
I have been posting on these boards for about 2-3 years now, and I have never seen such negativity and close mindedness on display. Even many of the posters who I consider the "voices of reason" in most discussions are becoming impatient and reactionary.
I understand the frustration from the fan base right now, and it is well deserved. Dimitroff and Smith know their @sses are on the line and I really don't think they hired Koetter as a favor. I am confident familiarity played a part, but is not the sole reason for the hire. I am not advocating for the guy, but I certainly will be optimistically neutral and give him support until has he given me reasons to not trust his abilities. I mean come on guys, wait until after the press conference (AT LEAST) to crucify the man!
People want Billick who has been out of coaching for years and his claim to fame is a Super Bowl carried by his defense, and also an explosive offense with a one of a kind player. Then you have Clement from Green Bay, who comes from a winning team. There's a fallacy going around that coaches on bad teams suck and coaches on good teams are the ones to get because suddenly the new team will be just like their old team. I'd like to point out that Clement has failed as an OC before as well...just saying. Who else is there? Martz? PLEASE.
Let's look at the numbers
Mike Mularkey regular season from 2008-2011
2008- Year 1
Rush-152.7 (2nd)
Pass-208.5 (14th)
Total-361.2 (6th)
PPG-24.4 (10th)
2009-Year 2
Rush-117.3 (15th)
Pass-223.2 (14th)
Total-340.4 (16th)
PPG-22.7 (13th)
2010-Year 3
Rush-118.2 (12th)
Pass-222.9 (15th)
Total-341.1 (16th)
PPG-25.9 (5th)
2011-Year 4
Rush-114.6 (17th)
Pass-262 (8th)
Total-376.6 (10th)
PPG-25.1 (7th)
Dirk Koetter regular season 2007-2011
2007-Year 1
Rush-149.4 (2nd)
Pass-208 (17th)
Total-357.4 (7th)
PPG-25.7 (6th)
2008-Year 2
Rush-110.9 (18th)
Pass-208.3 (14th)
Total-319.1 (20th)
PPG-18.9 (24th)
2009-Year 3
Rush-126.8 (10th)
Pass-209.8 (19th)
Total-336.6 (18th)
PPG-18.1 (24th)
2010-Year 4
Rush-149.7 (3rd)
Pass-191.6 (27th)
Total-341.3 (15th)
PPG-22.1 (18th)
2011 (Not used in the analysis)
Rush-123.1 (12th)
Pass-136.2 (32nd)
Total-259.3 (32nd)
PPG-15.2 (T-28th)
I will use the first four seasons of each coordinator and examine what I think that the numbers mean (disregarding 2011 with Koetter). I will call them Year 1-4
Year 1-Koetter and Mularkey's numbers were very similar. Both led by heavy rushing attacks with Turner for Atlanta and Taylor/MJD for the Jags. The passing yards were comparable from Garrard/Gray and rookie Matt Ryan. Here's how bad the Jags WRs were...in year 1, Michael Jenkins would have been the Jags leading WR by 5 catches (over Wilford) and over 100 yards (over Reggie Williams). If you guys thought Jenkins had no YAC ability, his 15.5 would have been second on the Jaguars after Reggie Williams' 16.6.
Year 2- Mularkey gets a semi-pass in this injury filled year. Slightly better than average numbers across the board, but as Gonzalez joined the crew the passing numbers went up. In year 2 the Jaguars run game took a hit, but the passing game stayed steady. With Ernest Wilford out of the picture, the Jags had Matt Jones step up, who had 65 receptions and 761 receiving yards in only 12 games. Jones then had legal problems and was out of the league.
Year 3- Mularkey's offense really stepped up, as Koeter's took a step back. Roddy had a huge season and the Falcons marched to a 13-3 record. For the third year in a row, the Jaguars had a new number one WR and that was Mike Sims-Walker with 63 catches for 869 yards, 7 touchdowns in 15 games. Mike Thomas and Torry Holt each had around 50 grabs. Remember, Marcedes Lewis hadn't broken out yet as he only had 32 grabs and two touchdowns.
Year 4- Mularkey's passing game shot up from a previous high of 223 yards to 262. Maybe Mularkey is finally opening up the playbook and became a better coach...or maybe Julio Jones is on the scene. The Falcons PPG however stayed pretty much the same. In year 4 Garrard played about 13.5 games and Mike Sims-Walker took a back seat to Mike Thomas and the running game. Marcedes Lewis broke out with 58 catches, 700 yards and 10 touchdowns and boosted their PPG to almost league average.
In summation, I believe everything I just wrote can be interpreted in different ways. Mularkey had led a top 10 offense in three of the past four years with a very steady and gradually increasing cast of characters. NOT ONE OF YOU WOULD WANT MULARKEY BACK, YET HIS OVERALL NUMBERS ARE IMPRESSIVE. THE STATS DO NOT TELL THE WHOLE STORY. Koetter has had fluxuation at wide receiver in all four years with a quarterback less talented than Matt Ryan and had a top 10 offense once, including a road playoff win at Pittsburgh (which Mularkey doesn't have).
Who cares if he isn't a sexy name? He specializes in the passing game and that's one thing that this team really needs to do better to compete with the elites in today's NFL. Listening to the Jags fans about his playcalling is ridiculous. He had to work with the parts he was given and created the offense to fit what he had (lots of screens to MJD, etc). Until he starts rolling out Matt every other play, I believe Dirk deserves a chance!
FINALLY, the same people trashing the Koetter hiring are the same ones yelling for Spagnuolo. The guy had a Super Bowl and a top 10 defense one year in New York with an incredibly talented line, and all of a sudden he's some kind of guru and SEXY PICK that the Falcons must hire? Well guess what, his defenses the past three years have ranked in PPG 26th, 12th and 31st with YPG being 22nd, 14th and 29th. It's all about being able to maximize the talent given and with that being said, I would love to have Spags here and I bet there wouldn't be one whisper about how he only succeeded in New York because of his BEASTLY defensive line or how his defenses have sucked for two of the past three years.
RE: I don't understand all the Dirk negativity-LONG READ - Paulitik - 01-16-2012 02:43 AM
Using Mularkey as your example doesn't help your cause. Any OC in the NFL should have good output with this talent regardless of scheme. My question is and has been is Koetter the best candidate for the talent we have, and was he the best available? No one has answered that. There is nothing on paper, no example of his coaching resume that can convince anyone that he was the best guy for the job. If there was something to go on, believe me I'd have found it by now.
RE: I don't understand all the Dirk negativity-LONG READ - DaMeatTrough - 01-16-2012 02:54 AM
(01-16-2012 02:43 AM)Paulitik Wrote: Using Mularkey as your example doesn't help your cause. Any OC in the NFL should have good output with this talent regardless of scheme. My question is and has been is Koetter the best candidate for the talent we have, and was he the best available? No one has answered that. There is nothing on paper, no example of his coaching resume that can convince anyone that he was the best guy for the job. If there was something to go on, believe me I'd have found it by now.
I edited my original post in the second (I think paragraph). Who would you want as OC?
Koetter's specialty is the passing game, and let's just say I didn't trust MM there. Nobody can say with certainty that he is the best guy for the job. Is it really Koetter that's worrying you, or the fact that he seemed to be hired extremely quickly?
RE: I don't understand all the Dirk negativity-LONG READ - DaMeatTrough - 01-16-2012 02:58 AM
(01-16-2012 02:43 AM)Paulitik Wrote: Any OC in the NFL should have good output with this talent regardless of scheme.
and any OC in the NFL should have bad output with Jacksonville's talent regardless of scheme.
RE: I don't understand all the Dirk negativity-LONG READ - Peyton - 01-16-2012 02:59 AM
Here is where the negativity comes from.
Koetter just lost his job because his offense sucked. Maybe it wasn't his fault, but Jacksonville thought Mike Mularkey and Bob Bratkowski were an upgrade to run the offense.
Since most Falcons fans thought Mularkey was junk, the notion that we would replace him with the guy he just demoted is an obscene thought.
Really to me it was unthinkable, there is no way I thought this would happen.
RE: I don't understand all the Dirk negativity-LONG READ - vel - 01-16-2012 03:02 AM
(01-16-2012 02:43 AM)Paulitik Wrote: Using Mularkey as your example doesn't help your cause. Any OC in the NFL should have good output with this talent regardless of scheme. My question is and has been is Koetter the best candidate for the talent we have, and was he the best available? No one has answered that. There is nothing on paper, no example of his coaching resume that can convince anyone that he was the best guy for the job. If there was something to go on, believe me I'd have found it by now.
Just like you say anybody can have success with the talent we had, the same holds true for why Dirk failed with the lack of talent he had. He had MJD and that's it and MJD still went for 2000 yards. It's not fair if the argument can't go both ways. Koetter is being judged on his 32nd ranked offense yet we weren't happy with the guy who led the 10th ranked offense, so those rankings shouldn't determine who is "better" because it would say we should keep MM.
I don't know if he was the best hire as we don't know what Clements would have brought and if Billick would have been right for the team. I am impressed at Koetter's knowledge. I didn't think MM was smart at all. I think he is inept and in over his head. Too much talent to score 0 points in any game. Koetter looks to attack on offense. MM didn't. The interviews (video and article) make me comfortable with the hire.
RE: I don't understand all the Dirk negativity-LONG READ - DaMeatTrough - 01-16-2012 03:04 AM
(01-16-2012 02:59 AM)Peyton Wrote: Here is where the negativity comes from.
Koetter just lost his job because his offense sucked. Maybe it wasn't his fault, but Jacksonville thought Mike Mularkey and Bob Bratkowski were an upgrade to run the offense.
Since most Falcons fans thought Mularkey was junk, the notion that we would replace him with the guy he just demoted is an obscene thought.
Really to me it was unthinkable, there is no way I thought this would happen.
All that is saying is Gene Smith is buddy buddy with Mularkey and his son even works as a scout for Jacksonville. Mularkey was getting that job no matter what, and when that happened he gets to bring his guy to be OC and call plays (Bratkowski). The fact that Mularkey didn't choose Koetter seems promising to me.
RE: I don't understand all the Dirk negativity-LONG READ - DaMeatTrough - 01-16-2012 03:06 AM
(01-16-2012 03:02 AM)vel Wrote: Just like you say anybody can have success with the talent we had, the same holds true for why Dirk failed with the lack of talent he had. He had MJD and that's it and MJD still went for 2000 yards. It's not fair if the argument can't go both ways. Koetter is being judged on his 32nd ranked offense yet we weren't happy with the guy who led the 10th ranked offense, so those rankings shouldn't determine who is "better" because it would say we should keep MM.
I don't know if he was the best hire as we don't know what Clements would have brought and if Billick would have been right for the team. I am impressed at Koetter's knowledge. I didn't think MM was smart at all. I think he is inept and in over his head. Too much talent to score 0 points in any game. Koetter looks to attack on offense. MM didn't. The interviews (video and article) make me comfortable with the hire.
Well said. Better than I could say it...
RE: I don't understand all the Dirk negativity-LONG READ - Aftermath - 01-16-2012 03:11 AM
I'm not down on the guy himself, he seems like a good guy and I assume he is semi-competent b/c he is coaching in the NFL. But at the same time its a completely unspectacular hire when the franchise needed someone that would bring excitement, not just for the fans, but for the players as well. What out O lacked more than anything last year wasn't play calling or execution, it was confidence, fire and aggression, none of which I saw from the Jags offense in Cooter's 5 years with the team. I hope the guy does well with us, but at least initially he looks like another vanilla hire from a vanilla coach to control what has turned into a completely vanilla offense.
RE: I don't understand all the Dirk negativity-LONG READ - vel - 01-16-2012 03:12 AM
(01-16-2012 02:59 AM)Peyton Wrote: Here is where the negativity comes from.
Koetter just lost his job because his offense sucked. Maybe it wasn't his fault, but Jacksonville thought Mike Mularkey and Bob Bratkowski were an upgrade to run the offense.
Since most Falcons fans thought Mularkey was junk, the notion that we would replace him with the guy he just demoted is an obscene thought.
Really to me it was unthinkable, there is no way I thought this would happen.
This is exactly it. Most people look at how terrible JAX was and want no part of what the problem was. They aren't seeing how devoid of talent JAX was. And you know I was rooting for the Fridge with you so I am not advocating for him nor dissing him. I am just using fair unbiased judgement and am optimistic about the hire.