ProFootballFocus - Going Deep - Printable Version
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ProFootballFocus - Going Deep - Radical - 05-10-2011 12:10 PM
From Khaled Elsayed of ProFootballFocus - Link
There was a lot of talk up to, during and after the draft about the quarterbacks selected. Each man dissected as analysts tried to project who’ll be the next Peyton Manning, and who’ll be the next Ryan Leaf.
One of the things you hear often is about a player’s ability to throw the deep ball. Who has it in them to go long and find the vertical threat. It’s an essential skill in most offenses, but one that is rarely truly analyzed in terms of productivity.
So here goes.
We broke down every pass from the 2010 season, and dropped them into numerous categories and sub categories. One of these was passes thrown longer than 20 yards. Which brings us to the point of this article. A look at who threw downfield the most and who did it most efficiently. 30 deep attempts was the qualifying mark to be considered.
Asking A Lot
In numbers on their own (and this includes the playoffs) nobody threw downfield more often than Peyton Manning. His 95 throws of more than 20 yards trumped Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers (both with 86), while Matt Hasselbeck and Drew Brees (both 76) rounded out the top five. Most interesting is the fact that only one of these guys finished with a completion percentage of over 40% when going deep. We’ll get to that guy in a bit.
You might guess that those five would have accumulated more yardage than the rest while throwing downfield. Well, not quite. While Rodgers and Brees made it onto both lists as each topped the 1,000 yard mark for deep throws, and Hasselbeck also appeared again, they were joined in the yardage Top 5 by Philip Rivers and Michael Vick.
So what of Manning and Flacco? They threw downfield more than any other quarterbacks in the league, yet only finished sixth (Manning) and eighth (Flacco). Quite simply, their accuracy (or inaccuracy, rather) held them down.
Of all quarterbacks who attempted 30 or more deep passes (and there were 31 quarterbacks who did so), Manning and Flacco finished in the bottom ten in completion percentage. Still it could be worse for both of them. They could be Matt Cassel.
The limited Chief struggled big time on his deep balls, completing just 14 of 57 for the worst percentage in the league. That beat out players like Alex Smith (25%), Chad Henne (25%) and Jay Cutler (26.56%). That wasn’t Cutler’s biggest problem, though. Along with the former Charger duo, Brees and Rivers, Cutler threw the most deep ball interceptions with eight.
AFC South Going Deep
At least Brees and Rivers were completing a high percentage of their longer passes. Both men snuck into a surprising Top 5 with percentages over the 42% mark – just ahead of “throwing it deep connoisseur” Michael Vick (41.54%). Instead, Brees (No. 5) and Rivers (No. 4) shared the top with a guy soon to be discarded by his team, another guy who could see the exit shortly, and Matt Schaub. Nothing real creative to say about Schaub there.
Nope, the top three is an AFC South struggle for supremacy that looks down on the great Peyton Manning and his 30.53% completion percentage with disgust. At number three, the non-descript Schaub (43.75%) yields to David Garrard (No. 2 at 45.1%), and Vince Young.
Hang on a second, Vince Young? It’s what the numbers say – Young completed 16 of 35 balls he attempted of over 20 yards. A small sample size but for a team prepared to take on some baggage, it shows Young does in fact have something to offer.
Completion Percentage on Deep Throws
Moving swiftly on, we’ll next look into how reliant these quarterbacks are on the deep ball. So as a percentage of balls they threw, who went deep most often?
Once again it’s “Vertical” Vince Young topping the list with a massive 22.44% of all throws being aimed 20+ yards downfield. Again, you have to factor in the small sample size, but it should let you know a little something about the Tennessee Titans’ offense that Kerry Collins finished third, throwing 15.83% of his passes deep. Others in the top five include Michael Vick who was extremely impressive with his deep ball, and both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Joe Flacco who were less so.
Let’s focus on Fitzpatrick and Flacco briefly; both men had some issues. The above table shows both to be in the bottom ten when it comes to their long range accuracy, but yet their teams kept calling on them to heave it deep. With Buffalo you feel like they over compensated a tad too much for the start of the season with Trent Edwards. The man who moved onto the Jaguars only went deep on 4.95% of passes he attempted (for both clubs). Lower than anyone who dropped back from center at least 100 times.
The problem with Fitzpatrick is that he walked the fine line between being aggressive and being reckless, often ending up on the wrong side. If you’re completing that little a percentage of deep balls, then you really need to look at what else is on offer instead of forcing it and taking an incompletion.
The same can be said of Flacco who never really had that deep threat to take advantage of with the Ravens rarely using Donte Stallworth. Yet they continued going deep and the end result was just 30.23% of those balls being completed. Now Flacco did lead the league (along with Rivers and Brees) in deep touchdowns with twelve, but the Ravens’ barrage of long balls really put the spotlight on the problems with their deep passing attack.
One Man’s Cowardice Another Man’s Contemplation
At the other end of the scale, there are stories to be told about players for whom going deep was the smallest part of their repertoire. One that will frustrate Miami fans is that Chad Henne finished with the second lowest percentage of his passes thrown deep, just 8.15%. For a team that gives it’s quarterback as much time as Miami, this adds fuel to the fire suggesting Henne was a bit gun shy when it came to attacking vertically (perhaps with good reason, given only one in four of his deep balls end up as receptions). Still, Miami seems to have faith in him and opted not to target a rookie in this year’s draft.
Speaking of rookies (nice segue), if any of the teams who took one are thinking about playing them straight away, they could learn from the Rams. They only had Sam Bradford going deep on 6.78% of plays, keeping things simpler and safer for their franchise quarterback.
Other notable names at the bottom of the list include Ryan (8.5%), Schaub (8.36%) and Tom Brady (9.12%) who all went to work over shorter and intermediate distances, but in differing ways.
While Henne get’s criticism for his low percentage (on all fronts) you have to respect the work of the Texans, Falcons and Patriots in making the deep ball a smaller part of their offense. For Atlanta, they ran a ball control offense that worked on methodically moving the chains that got them the number one seed in the playoffs. New England didn’t need to attack vertically because they had players running free over the middle and a phenomenal decision-maker distributing the ball on their way to a 14-2 record. Houston found the offensive balance they were searching for, but their season was ultimately let down by their defense.
Deep Throw Percentage of Attempts
The above shows that you can win in the NFL without attacking vertically all that much, but if you don’t have the right personnel throwing and catching, forcing it can hurt.
Take Colt McCoy for example. A revelation for the Browns in year one, he was also guilty of making some bad downfield decisions. An incredible 21.88% of his passes longer than 20 yards ended up as interceptions, far higher than Cutler (12.5%) who finished second, and Rivers, Garrard, and Jason Campbell who together finished third with 11.76%.
Meanwhile, Kyle Orton made the most of 2010’s break-out player, Brandon Lloyd. Only 2.74% of his long balls were intercepted, just besting Josh Freeman (2.78%) while Brett Favre finished a respectable third but will probably go away thinking he would have finished higher if he could have chucked a few to Sidney Rice.
Interceptions on Deep Throws
There you have it. A somewhat comprehensive look at the quarterbacks when they took aim downfield. It’s not a gospel indication of who the best are because of the numerous other factors that statistics can’t delve into. Namely, bits likes the type of throw, conditions, type of player throwing to and against, and variables such as tipped passes resulting in completions or interceptions. For that, I’d suggest purchasing a premium membership to see our deep ball grades … but then, of course I would.
For now, I’ll leave you safe in the knowledge that Vince Young is more accurate (in one area) than you thought possible, while even Peyton Manning has his struggles at times.
Sometimes you have to admire the audacity of numbers.
I did a quick print screen/crop job on the data tables. Better than trying to do a copy-pasta job and make your eyes bleed trying to figure out how things are supposed to line up. I did it in MS paint real quick, so it isn't very high quality.
RE: ProFootballFocus - Going Deep - phocis850 - 05-10-2011 12:40 PM
Doesn't look like bad criticism at all for the Falcons/Ryan.
If we didn't run a ball control type offense, Ryan would be clobbered by all these stats.
RE: ProFootballFocus - Going Deep - Radical - 05-10-2011 01:23 PM
(05-10-2011 12:40 PM)phocis850 Wrote: Doesn't look like bad criticism at all for the Falcons/Ryan.
I think it works to end the notion that Ryan is so terrible on his deep passes.
The difference between Tom Brady and Matt Ryan was 2 attempts and 2 completions, and some players you'd think were good or great at the deep throw are actually just benefiting from the sheer number of attempts they make.
RE: ProFootballFocus - Going Deep - takeitdown - 05-10-2011 01:38 PM
I think it shows we need to either throw the deep ball more, OR we need to have better route design that leaves people running free.
Brady and a lot of those guys, as mentioned, don't need to throw deep, because they'll have a guy running a crossing route at 12 yards, who is two steps beyond the LB...and a pass to him will pick up another 5-10 yards.
You have to have one or the other. You either throw deep to keep the defenses honest, OR if you choose to throw short (knowing you're making one element easier on the defense) then you must make sophisticated routes...so the DBs can't just sit the first move on all short routes.
I think this team needs to do a combo...some more deep routes, because Ryan did fine with them rookie year, but a lot more crossing routes and complex routes short to take advantage of short passing accuracy and get some YAC.
RE: ProFootballFocus - Going Deep - papachaz - 05-10-2011 03:20 PM
(05-10-2011 01:38 PM)takeitdown Wrote: I think it shows we need to either throw the deep ball more, OR we need to have better route design that leaves people running free.
hopefully JJ can and WILL help with both of these
RE: ProFootballFocus - Going Deep - Radical - 05-10-2011 03:52 PM
(05-10-2011 01:38 PM)takeitdown Wrote: I think this team needs to do a combo...some more deep routes, because Ryan did fine with them rookie year, but a lot more crossing routes and complex routes short to take advantage of short passing accuracy and get some YAC.
We have probably some of the most diverse and varied system in the entire league when it comes to the short passing game. The biggest problem is that our WR corps outside of Roddy White isn't very fast or agile.
When does Michael Jenkins ever turn a short catch into big yards? Does anyone ever fear Tony Gonzalez breaking a tackle and going 30 yards these days? How often does Michael Turner catch a dump-off pass and take it the distance? Will Brian Finneran ever get more than 2 steps after a catch?
What a lot of people fail to realize is that between 08 and now we lost a healthy Harry Douglas and Jerious Norwood. Were they Pro Bowlers? No. However, they opened up a lot of things for us and had the agility/speed to take those little plays and YAC their way towards 20+ yard gains.
When you have to defend the field vertically and laterally, all the sudden you start finding space. When there is space, you get YAC, and with YAC you get big plays. No offensive system in the world can make up for being slow after a certain point. The Falcons team of last year was probably the slowest Top 5 scoring offense to take the field this decade.
RE: ProFootballFocus - Going Deep - papachaz - 05-10-2011 04:23 PM
i'm gonna throw in what is probably a dumb question, but.... i'll ask anyway, LOL.
does the list differentiate the long plays that were short plays that went over 20 yds due to YAC? or is it strictly considering only the plays where the ball actually traveled over 20 yards in the air, downfield?
RE: ProFootballFocus - Going Deep - Anomaly - 05-10-2011 04:28 PM
(05-10-2011 04:23 PM)papachaz Wrote: i'm gonna throw in what is probably a dumb question, but.... i'll ask anyway, LOL.I think it's just passes that traveled 20 yards in the air.
RE: ProFootballFocus - Going Deep - takeitdown - 05-10-2011 05:23 PM
(05-10-2011 03:52 PM)Radical Wrote: We have probably some of the most diverse and varied system in the entire league when it comes to the short passing game. The biggest problem is that our WR corps outside of Roddy White isn't very fast or agile.
I'll agree to large extent...that TG and Turner, especially, weren't going to bust anything...and Jenkins wasn't going to create. However, we didn't have a lot of clear out routes and delay drags where you see a WR coming over the middle ahead of a DB. Roddy, HD, and Jenkins were all capable of that.
Our formations/motion were complex, but our route combos, I felt, were quite simple, and not designed for YAC.
Hopefully with improved talent this year, we'll see improvements solely from the talent, and from upgrades in scheme.
I'd like to keep Norwood for the reasons you mentioned...if he can stay healthy a bit, he's a matchup help, and he and Rodgers can split that role. If either gets injured, we have two of that kind of guy, so one can fill in, instead of being back down to Turner/Snelling.
RE: ProFootballFocus - Going Deep - Swift Is a Die Hard - 05-10-2011 05:42 PM
(05-10-2011 01:23 PM)Radical Wrote: I think it works to end the notion that Ryan is so terrible on his deep passes.
Ryan is inconsistent on his deep ball and there is no doubt about . If you double Matt Ryan comp and pass attempts , it will still be short of the production of Aaron Rodgers . Aaron Rodgers also threw 100 less pass attempts then Ryan all year so factor that in .