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+--- Thread: A Troubling Statistical Trend (/Thread-A-Troubling-Statistical-Trend)
A Troubling Statistical Trend - cooperbh - 01-21-2011 11:34 PM
...concerning our running game. First, the raw numbers:
Michael Turner, 2008
376 Attempts (1st)
1,277 Yards After Contact (1st)
4.5 Yards Per Carry (18th)
3.4 Yards After Contact Average (7th)
Michael Turner/Jason Snelling, 2009
312 Atts (5th)
1,016 YAC (2nd)
4.6 YPC (19th)
3.2 YAC Average (6th)
Michael Turner, 2010
334 Atts (1st)
941 YAC (1st)
4.1 YPC (34th)
2.8 YAC Average (19th)
Some analysis:
Over the last three years, 72% of the 4,515 rushing yards our starting RBs have gained have come after contact - easily the highest percentage in the league during that span.
In the two seasons that Turner amassed 300+ carries, the percentage of his yardage that was gained after contact was 75% (2008) and 69% (2010.) No other 300+ carry RB has posted a percentage higher than 67% since 2008.
To put this in further perspective, consider that over that same three year period the percentage of after-contact yards for the run-heavy Titans - a team whose entire offense is essentially one RB - is a relatively miniscule 59%.
Something has to give here. Either we need to find some offensive linemen who can provide Turner with some actual holes to run through every once in a while, or find him a commitee partner who can split the punishment with him. And I'm not talking about some 3rd down "speed back" here. Turner has always had a 3rd down back. I'm talking about another between-the-tackles grinder who can alternate entire series.
Personally, if I had to pick just one, I'd prefer we upgraded the line if possible - especially considering the constant abuse our QB also receives whenever we go up against good defenses. The probability of piss-poor run blocker Gonzo returning next season only makes adding talent to the line that much more urgent a need.
Whatever the exact course of action, if Turner continues to lead the league in both attempts and YAC, his YPC and YAC averages will continue to drop like a stone. I fear that by the time the free fall finally stops, we'll be scrambing in the middle of a season to find our James Starks.
I hope we put away the duct tape this offseason and finally address this issue.
RE: A Troubling Statistical Trend - Penumbra - 01-21-2011 11:47 PM
Thank you,...somebody sees the terrible weakness of our Falcons other than me. It's not all the O-line, it's the center and right guard who got blown up last Saturday night.
In 2008 Turner seemed to get through the line fine into the secondary but since then it's what you showed,...he's getting hit behind the line after handoffs, getting hit at the LOS and into the secondary.
Which raises questions,...we need a speed RB,...need something on defense, a CB and more talent on the line and at LB. This is year 3 in the process and it still looks like we're below NFL standards.
RE: A Troubling Statistical Trend - cooperbh - 01-21-2011 11:52 PM
(01-21-2011 11:47 PM)Penumbra Wrote: Thank you,...somebody sees the terrible weakness of our Falcons other than me. It's not all the O-line, it's the center and right guard who got blown up last Saturday night.
I'm not sure I understand. Don't the center and right guard play on the O-line?
Edit: Nevermind, I get it now. You were saying it's not every member of the O-line. I agree about McClure. Good run blocker, but his pass protection leaves much to be desired.
RE: A Troubling Statistical Trend - Radical - 01-21-2011 11:58 PM
(01-21-2011 11:47 PM)Penumbra Wrote: Which raises questions,...we need a speed RB,...need something on defense, a CB and more talent on the line and at LB. This is year 3 in the process and it still looks like we're below NFL standards.
13-3 says we're hardly below NFL standards.
RE: A Troubling Statistical Trend - cooperbh - 01-22-2011 12:02 AM
(01-21-2011 11:58 PM)Radical Wrote: 13-3 says we're hardly below NFL standards.
For the record, that was certainly not the point I was trying to make. We do seem to have a fatal flaw that can be exploited by playoff caliber teams, however.
RE: A Troubling Statistical Trend - Penumbra - 01-22-2011 12:02 AM
(01-21-2011 11:52 PM)cooperbh Wrote: I'm not sure I understand. Don't the center and right guard play on the O-line?
Edit: Nevermind, I get it now. You were saying it's not every member of the O-line. I agree about McClure. Good run blocker, but his pass protection leaves much to be desired.
That's it. Todd has been a great Falcon but he's often dominated by a nose guard like he was last Saturday. Harvey is a good guard for a trap,...he's able to pull well but he cannot hold a 330 pound DT, well he could hold him lol,...Dahl just cannot keep the big DTs from getting penetration in goal line situations.
RE: A Troubling Statistical Trend - Penumbra - 01-22-2011 12:05 AM
(01-21-2011 11:58 PM)Radical Wrote: 13-3 says we're hardly below NFL standards.
pffft,...16-0 and out of the playoffs is below my standards. One day we might enjoy a Super Bowl win,...when we stop settling for losing.
RE: A Troubling Statistical Trend - kane#7 - 01-22-2011 12:11 AM
As my Sig shows I want Noel Devine... he won't take the punishment like you say
But I believe a Combo of Turner, Snelling and Devine we will be good... I don't want Turner to lead the league in carries next year I want a three headed monster..
RE: A Troubling Statistical Trend - cooperbh - 01-22-2011 12:14 AM
(01-22-2011 12:05 AM)Penumbra Wrote: pffft,...16-0 and out of the playoffs is below my standards. One day we might enjoy a Super Bowl win,...when we stop settling for losing.
Exactly how many of us fans have to stop settling for losing in order for us to get a championship? Is 51% of the fanbase adequate? Or does it need to be every single fan?
RE: A Troubling Statistical Trend - Radical - 01-22-2011 12:14 AM
(01-22-2011 12:05 AM)Penumbra Wrote: pffft,...16-0 and out of the playoffs is below my standards. One day we might enjoy a Super Bowl win,...when we stop settling for losing.
We're not talking about Superbowl standards. You said NFL standards. Your statements suggested we are a below average team. 13-3 below average teams do not exist.
No one is "settling" for losing, but ripping off my shirt and DEMANDING SUCCESS OR ELSE while rubbing mayo on my nipples isn't going to lead to anything.