[Editor’s note: Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist looks at a game that, prior to the season, didn’t look to be a very good one. Five weeks in, it’s one of the better matchups of the weekend.]

The end of baseball season (sorry Cubs and Chisox fans) shifts the full focus of Chicago sports back on the first place Bears (yes, on top of the NFC North). In Atlanta (with the Braves gone a long time ago) they’re breakin’ out the steps to the old “Dirty Bird,” with the Falcons sitting one game back of the Panthers in the NFC South at 3-2. The news in Chicago has to be the maturation of Kyle Orton over the past couple weeks. Orton has quietly gone about his business and helped the Bears to wins over Philly and Detroit in back-to-back weeks, while Atlanta is on track with rebuilding under new G.M. Thomas Dimitroff (one of the great guys in our business) and head coach Mike Smith. The Georgia Dome should be rockin’ and rollin’ behind rookie QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner going up against a tough Bears defense. The end result will be two games over, or back to even.

The Bears came roaring out of the box on the legs of rookie RB Matt Forte, upsetting the Colts off his 123 yards rushing and 1 TD. He flashed the big-play speed and explosion they had hoped they were drafting when he broke free for a 50-yard TD sprint. Since then, Forte’s total yardage and average has for the most part diminished with each week. I’ve felt it crucial that Chicago pace the young back through the season if they hope to have him around for a potential playoff run in ’08. Tulane knew what they had as well and Forte carried the ball 361 times his senior year (crammed into a 12-game season). That total was more than twice his previous season high of 169 (sophomore). After the first 3 weeks of the 2008 season, Forte was on schedule for 390 carries. Ouch! It was good to see Kevin Jones worked into the rotation against Detroit with 10 totes of his own. Whether it was because the game was out of reach or not, Jones needs to carry some of the rushing burden over the next few weeks as defenses descend on Forte.

KEY #1 is just that, get Kevin Jones involved in the running game as well. Jones is a big back in his own right and is equally effective as a receiver. I know the Bears and their fans are infatuated with the big-play ability and production of Forte, but if they want him around longer than half the season they should pace the young star. A fresh Forte may bring back more of those 50 yard runs we saw against Indianapolis. Behind OC Olin Kreutz and LG Josh Beekman the Bears running game has been the most consistent, averaging almost 4.5 yards per carry. The team’s overall average is 3.8.

The Bears defense starts with pressure up front and that dissipates to their secondary, where they lead the League with 41 passes defended and rank 6th in interceptions. Opponents look to rush at the Bears defense less than any other in the League. That’s the level of respect and overall effectiveness they have at stopping the run (4th in the NFL). Chicago has turned this combination into the number one ranked defense against 3rd down as well. The result of their run defense and success on 3rd has given their offense some 2 minutes more in possession time each game. So the natural ability of their defense should keep Atlanta RB Michael Turner in check for the most part, and the Bears have yet to surrender a 100 yard rusher (Atlanta is 3-0 with Turner over 100).

It will be the amount of disruption they can rain down on the rookie QB that will be KEY #2 for Chicago. Matt Ryan has been very impressive in the face of early pressure from opponents. He is passing well against the blitz, moving around in the pocket to avoid the rush and converting on third down at a respectable clip. The Bears are the very best at disrupting the pass when bringing the heat (48.3 QB rating) and they do an excellent job of disguising their pressure, whether with their LB’s or off the edge from their secondary. It will be the stiffest challenge yet for the young Ryan, and when forced to carry the club on the passing game alone he has come up short. In both losses, Ryan threw over 30 attempts and completed less than 60%. No TD’s, 2 picks. The formula for Chicago is fairly clear.

Atlanta will try to test the Bears’ defense on the ground. The acquisition of Turner has brought a degree of toughness to the Falcons running game and opened up some opportunities for the fleet-footed Jerious Norwood to break free (runs of 44 and 40 yards) as well. The Falcons run on first down at a 2-to-1 ratio (2nd in NFL), averaging near an astounding 6 yards per carry. This creates a great deal of flexibility on second down with the run/pass option, but their conversion rate sits around average for the League (30%). The Bears will stack the LOS on 1st down, and likely will bring down eight in the box to force 2nd/3rd and long situations.

KEY #3 will be the short passing game for Matt Ryan. Ryan will want to find his RBs off the swing or to the flat, perhaps even utilize the screen a bit more on third down. Atlanta doesn’t really throw to their TE (though Justin Peele has some ability), so it will be imperative to find the outlet receivers for the Falcons to move the chains. Thus far the short passing game has yielded a very low rate of success and the Bears are a top 10 team defending the under routes. Atlanta has eight 5 minute drives on the season, 7 of ten plays or more. Norwood provides Ryan with the best option out of the backfield to convert on 3rd down via the pass. If Atlanta looks to force the ball down the field, Chicago will take advantage of the opportunity to create the turnover.

Atlanta’s defense has struggled a bit with consistency, especially the past two weeks on the road. They gave up some 400 yards total offense; 300 to the pass and 100 on the ground (both games). Kyle Orton found his groove against the Lions and was able to spread the ball around to all his receivers. We know the Bears will want to establish the run with Forte and Jones. The Falcons have struggled as a team limiting the rush (21st overall) and have given up 17 runs of 10+ yards. So the initial battle will be up front between the Falcons’ front four versus the O-Line of the Bears. With the injury to Brandon Lloyd, Rashied Davis and Devin Hester (last week) have played a bigger roll in the vertical game. Look for Chicago to try and strike the deep middle of Atlanta’s secondary. The Falcons have proven suspect with deep coverage and KEY #4 will be the pass defense of safeties Lawyer Malloy and Erik Coleman. At this point in their careers both are a bit more adept at stopping the run than hanging with receivers down the seams. Chicago will test you deep and look for the Bears to potentially use the speedy Davis and Hester off the post route from play-action, especially on the backside. The Falcons have given up 67 big plays of 10+ yards, 17 of 20+. The two vet safeties can’t bite too quickly on Forte and the run.