Why The O-line Is More The Problem Than Ryan And Mularkey

[cooperbh]

Well, I finally decided to hold my nose and actually pay for statistics. FYI, the premium stats on PFF are now only $40 up until the start of the 2011 season instead of the regular in-season price of $90 or whatever it is. Just in case anyone was interested.

OK, let's get to it.

The first column shows the total number of QB dropbacks each team attempted during the 2010 regular season. The second shows the number of QB pressures each team allowed. Finally, the third column shows for each team the percentage of dropbacks in which a QB pressure occurred, which I will call the Pressure to Dropback Ratio (PDR.)

01) IND: 697..........DAL: 154..........IND: 26.0%
02) NO: 685...........CLE: 157...........DAL: 26.6%
03) DET: 682..........NYJ: 158..........SEA: 27.0%
04) PHI: 679..........SEA: 161..........NO: 27.7%
05) WAS: 669........NE: 166............NYJ: 28.1%
06) DEN: 644.........TEN: 166..........CIN: 28.1%
07) STL: 640.........NYG: 173..........DET: 29.0%
08) GB: 627...........CIN: 176...........CLE: 29.8%
09) CIN: 625..........BAL: 177...........HOU: 30.3%
10) ATL: 622........IND: 181...........NYG: 30.6%
11) MIA: 618.........HOU: 185..........MIA: 30.6%
12) HOU: 611........KAN: 183...........NE: 30.9%
13) SEA: 596........CAR: 188...........ATL: 31.0%
14) SD: 591..........MIA: 189...........GB: 31.1%
15) ARI: 590.........NO: 190............TEN: 32.2%
16) BUF: 584.........MIN: 191...........BAL: 32.7%
17) DAL: 580.........ATL: 193...........DEN: 33.1%
18) OAK: 568........JAC: 193............MIN: 33.9%
19) SF: 567...........GB: 195.............STL: 34.1%
20) NYG: 565.........DET: 198...........CAR: 34.2%
21) TB: 564...........PIT: 201............KAN: 34.7%
22) NYJ: 563..........SD: 206.............SD: 34.9%
23) MIN: 563.........BUF: 208............BUF: 35.6%
24) CHI: 551..........SF: 212.............JAC: 36.1%
25) CAR: 549.........DEN: 213...........PIT: 37.3%
26) BAL: 541..........STL: 218...........ARI: 37.3%
27) PIT: 539..........OAK: 219...........SF: 37.4%
28) NE: 538...........ARI: 220............PHI: 37.9%
29) JAC: 535..........TB: 229.............OAK: 38.6%
30) KAN: 528.........CHI: 232............TB: 40.6%
31) CLE: 527..........PHI: 264............CHI: 42.0%
32) TEN: 515.........WAS: 303..........WAS: 45.3%

It's really no shock that the majority of elite passing attacks in the league (IND, NO, GB, HOU, DAL, DET) are top 10 in PDR. Simply put, it takes time for long pass plays to develop, and common sense dictates that teams who give their QB that time to let long plays come open will complete more of them than those who don't.

I was somewhat surprised that SD wasn't ranked higher, but then I guess when you have a deadly accurate QB with the quickest release and arguably the best pocket presence in the league, you can get away with having a leaky O-line. The other top 10 passing team with a below average PDR is the Eagles, which as we all know features a QB who can easily negate pressure with his legs.

As for the Falcons, the numbers are what you would expect for the #16 ranked passing team in the NFL. Not a bad O-line, though not an especially good one either. But it's when you examine the numbers on a game-by-game basis that you see the real picture of this unit's effectiveness emerge:

Opponent......Pressures.....Hits.....Sacks.....Dropbacks.....PDR
PIT...................19.............3..........2..............51...........47.1%
ARI...................4..............0..........1..............45...........11.1​%
NO....................3..............3..........2..............42...........19.0​%
SF....................14.............6..........3..............51...........45.1%
CLE...................9..............4..........2..............35...........42.9%
PHI...................5..............5..........2..............49...........24.5​%
CIN..................10.............3..........0..............37...........35.1%
TB....................4..............4..........0..............40...........20.0​%
BAL...................9.............5...........2..............56...........28.6​%
STL..................5..............3...........0..............43...........18.6​%
GB...................14.............1...........2..............31...........58.1%
TB...................11.............4...........0..............40...........37.5%
CAR.................10.............4...........4..............40...........45.0%
SEA..................7..............5...........1..............44...........29.5​%
NO..................10..............2...........1..............39...........33.3%
CAR................13..............6...........1..............47...........42.5%

What's telling here is not just that we were below the league average in PDR for the majority of our games. It's also that against the two teams who are playing in the Super Bowl this year, our line was allowing pressure on the QB a whopping 50-60% of the time on passing plays. That's just not gonna cut it.

So, unless Ryan suddenly becomes Ben Roethlisberger, getting him a Santonio Holmes isn't gonna help things all that much. The first thing Ryan needs is the same amount of clean pocket time that Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Romo and Schaub are all afforded. Otherwise, our passing game will continue to reside in the middle of pack.

One more thing: Myself and others have stated in other threads our belief that the majority of pressure this year has come from the LT and C positions. Well, guess which tackle allowed the 9th most pressures, the 6th most QB hits and the 3rd most sacks in the league in 2010? Guess which center allowed the most pressures, the 3rd most hits and the 4th most sacks?

At least we know where to start.

[USAF HART]

swift this man paid to prove you wrong...your thoughts?

[cooperbh]

(01-25-2011 03:52 AM)USAF HART Wrote:  swift this man paid to prove you wrong...your thoughts?

LOL. No, just wanted to finally get to the bottom of this thing, actually.

Proving Swift wrong requires nothing more than pointing out that a particular statement was, in fact, made by Swift.

[Swift Is a Die Hard]

(01-25-2011 03:52 AM)USAF HART Wrote:  swift this man paid to prove you wrong...your thoughts?

Qb pressures are one of the most useless stats around look at the Carolina game to end the season 13 pressure allowed if anyone watched the last game that was one of the best games oline played all year

Guy should have SAVED his $

[Peyton]

Honestly, the data has limited value. The Colts numbers are so good because Peyton Manning gets rid of the ball so quickly. Ditto with Aaron Rodgers. Did you guys watch the NFC Championship game? The Packers marched down the field passing the ball and Rodgers never even took more than a 3 step drop on the whole drive.

He's able to do that because he has 4 WRs that can consistently win one on one matchups. Ryan doesn't have that, so you don't get to see too many 3 step drops.

By the same token, Pittsburgh's got a very poor number, but they have a QB who is famous for refusing to throw the ball on time.

So I think this data has some value, but it's not all that much.

[monoxide]

does that site have stats on corners thrown too? I'd love to see the statistics on how much Grimes was thrown at compared to some of the other pro bowl corners.

[Swift Is a Die Hard]

Good Post Peyton

Also we put somewhat pressure on Rodgers in playoff game but if he is avoiding pressure and making plays what good is stat. QB pressure is basically a limited stat . I would love to see our defensive number in pressure and counter it will anyone say we did a good job actually putting pressure on opposing teams QB

[Swift Is a Die Hard]

Coop also basically argues against his own point . SD numbers are worse and look at there passing game . Plus they were running in and out wrs every week .

Problem with offense

1) Mularky
2)Ryan
3) lack of a play maker outside Roddy

4) oline

A great offensive mind that knows how to spread and go on attack could make guys like Harry Douglas and Weems very useful . With Mularky they rot with his wr sets and formations .Would I like a upgrade at wr yes but not a steep one a guy like Malcom Floyd to stretch defense and get down field and open up some things for our other players underneath

[Peyton]

Identifying the lack of explosiveness in Atlanta's offense doesn't actually require all this analysis. All you have to do is watch the games and think about what you are seeing out there.

How many times did you see a WR catch the ball and make significant YAC after catching the ball? When did you see any pass receiver on the Falcons make a guy miss or show any elusiveness at all this year?

They just need a couple of guys on this offense who can do a little bit extra from time to time and take some of the pressure off of Matt. Both of the teams playing in the Super Bowl have those guys on their team.

[Peyton]

(01-25-2011 09:44 AM)Swift Is a Die Hard Wrote:  Coop also basically argues against his own point . SD numbers are worse and look at there passing game . Plus they were running in and out wrs every week .

Problem with offense

1) Mularky
2)Ryan
3) lack of a play maker outside Roddy

4) oline

A great offensive mind that knows how to spread and go on attack could make guys like Harry Douglas and Weems very useful . With Mularky they rot with his wr sets and formations .Would I like a upgrade at wr yes but not a steep one a guy like Malcom Floyd to stretch defense and get down field and open up some things for our other players underneath

I don't think you can assume that Weems has what it takes to be a WR. He's never shown that. Returning kicks is a completely different skill set than being a WR. History is filled with great kick returners that weren't really that great at anything else.

As far as Douglas, he was never going to be the same guy this year. Mularkey did a great job of using him in 2008. We'll see what he looks like next year.