TDW's First 2011 Off-Season Proposal

[TheDirtyWord]

As we all still try and digest a disappointing end to what had been a great season, I look forward to 2011 with some concern. Not really related to the Falcons, but whether we’ll have anything to get excited about. Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail. I’d hate for this bad taste in my mouth to linger without the chance for redemption.

As for the Falcons, their issues aren’t related to personnel that much anymore. Certainly, every team will have holes or weak spots in their line-up. But with 9 Pro-Bowlers, the Falcons are a team that has a very good base of talent from which to build. Now it’s time to fine tune the engine.
However, if I could describe this off-seasons priority, I think it can be encapsulated in one word.

PLAYMAKERS

It’s been a much discussed deficiency of the Falcons, but until you realize that in the last 2 NFL Drafts, the Falcons have only spent 1 (Kerry Meier) selection on a skill position player (QB, RB, TE, WR) out of 15 selections (6.67%), and compare that to the rest of the NFL…

- No other NFL franchise has spent fewer than 20% of their selections on skill position players
- 31.7% of all players drafted in these two drafts were skill position players

…you have to figure that the 2011 Draft will be heavily geared toward replenishing their roster at these positions. When you look at the last 3 seasons, only the Saints have a lower percentage of skill position players drafted.

So, I will undertake this effort, blindly looking away from the labor mess than threatens to derail trades & free agency this off-season and assume all is well and proceed.

Free Agency

The Falcons took the big plunge and spent a bunch of money on Dunta Robinson who simply didn’t come close to looking like the $58M the Falcons paid for him. You can’t have too many of those types of misses on the FA market because they essentially raise the prices of signing your own guys (think Brent Grimes isn’t counting his zeros?). The Falcons have been more often than not though players in the top tier of the FA market in Dimitroff’s time here when you consider the Michael Turner signing. But I think they abstain this season and look for more of the Erik Coleman/Ben Hartsock type depth players that can fill certain roles.

Re-sign

Tyson Clabo – 5 years, $30M; $8.5M Signing Bonus

Clabo got himself some recognition this season with his first ProBowl nod, and together with Harvey Dahl, has formed a formidable right side of the OL for the Falcons. But I think the Falcons will need to make a decision on who to keep and it’s simply easier to find guards than massive RT maulers. Also, assuming the salary cap comes back in some form, or close to original form, it’s simply not feasible to sign every FA you have come up for renegotiation. Dimitroff will gladly take the 5th round 2012 Compensation Pick Dahl would most likely bring and open up the RG for competition between Johnson, Hawley & Reynolds.

Brent Grimes – 5 years $35M; $10M Signing Bonus

Grimes is a great story and while I think he’s only eligible for RFA, it would be wise for the Falcons to lock him up long term. Given the amount of re-signs the Falcons have, it might not be possible but if Grimes has another season like he did this one…well, we’re talking about one heck of a playmaking force in the secondary that if he did hit the open market might hit $10M/year. If the Falcons can get him at $7M, I think they have to jump all over it.

Brian Williams – 1 year $1M

Describe Brian Williams in one word? That would be steady. Williams is getting up there in age as he’ll be 32 when the 2011 season starts, but it’s clear that the coaching staff trusts him and with lots of young CB’s on the roster, the Falcons will probably want to keep their veteran investment at the nickelback slot to a minimum. Like last year, Williams won’t be guaranteed a roster spot and his presence on the Falcons will probably largely depend on the development of others rather than his own. But he sets a decent floor at the position at a bargain price.

Justin Blalock – 5 years, $22.5M; $6.5M Signing Bonus

The Falcons need to retain at least one of their starting guards, and quite frankly Dahl will be the more desirable option on the open market. However, Blalock has slowly developed into a solid if rather ordinary player. Blalock should be the more affordable option and as the younger player still has some upside left he could potentially explore. Most of all though, Blalock’s resigning does not throw the Falcons O-Line into a state of flux, preserving a large degree of continuity they have forged the last 3-4 seasons.

Mike Peterson – 1 year, $1.75M

Along the same lines of retaining Brian Williams, Peterson’s primary role will probably be determined the by development of Sean Weatherspoon who suffered through a fairly silent rookie season that was due in part to a recurring knee injury, but also seemed plagued by general rookie awareness issues. If Weatherspoon is able to act more decisively and instinctively on the field, Peterson’s role will decrease. But again, having him as insurance for one more season is a prudent move.

Eric Weems – RFA

I don’t believe Weems is available for Unrestricted Free Agency. However, he’s become one of the best if not the best (and most versatile) special teams players in the NFL. He’s now justifiably on the roster on that ability alone and quite frankly, should not be considered a WR like Allen Rossum used to be considered a CB. Our depth chart was severely hamstrung last season because we considered Weems a WR5. While he can still be listed as a WR, the Falcons need to carry 6 WR’s next season including Weems.

Tough Decisions

Harvey Dahl – The general thought process is that the Falcons have to balance fiscal responsibility and player development with retaining key personnel. Dahl has done nothing to not warrant being re-signed, but I believe his value will be greater to someone else than the Falcons.

Jason Snelling – It’s entirely possible that his second half swoon has detracted any would be suitors. But honestly, I would not go much above the minimum tender to resign Snelling. With the RB position as commoditized as it’s become on the NFL landscape, you have to gauge value very discriminately. Snelling does not offer enough differentiation from Turner to warrant a change of pace back role, and the Falcons seem content to run Turner into the ground. And if the Falcons do choose to limit Turner’s workload in the future, they would probably do so with a more diverse talent. As such, while I like Snelling, he doesn’t do anything that’s worth overpaying for.

Marketplace

Matt Light; 3 year $11M; $4.5M signing bonus

It’s no secret that Sam Baker’s inconsistency has been a sticking point relating the offensive lines ability to pass protect and give Matt Ryan enough time to look downfield. While the unit as a whole is a more run blocking proficient unit than pass blocking, Baker’s up and down performance at LT is something the Falcons have to figure out how to improve.

Light is past his prime…but the opportunity to compete for a starting role under an administration and environment that he would have some familiarity with could revitalize him to play closer to the level he played at 2-3 years ago. As it stands today, according to ProFootballFocus.com, Light was significantly better than Baker in 2010. Light’s presence would provide Baker an immediate threat to his job which he really hasn’t had since he’s been drafted, but at the same time not offer a long term solution that might discourage Baker from continuing to try and raise his game. At a minimum, this provides the Falcons options and depth at the position and ideally, better performance. But in a FA landscape where you are not sure how a player might fit within the locker room, Light’s experience with the Patriot Way and Dimitroff’s previous working relationship with him makes this a good fit and match.

I’m not sure what kind of bucks Light can get on the market, but with Sebastian Vollmer due to take over at LT for the Patriots, it would appear that Light would not have the opportunity in New England that he would here.

Brian Leonard; 1 year $750K

This is for the most part Jason Snelling insurance. I like Snelling. His versatility is a nice surprise and his 44 receptions are almost startling when you think about it. But I do not want to overpay for him whatsoever. While he filled in admirably for Turner, both in the Arizona game this year and for the last month/month and half last year…he really started to show his limitations on the ground during the second half of this year. Since the Philadelphia beatdown, Snelling had 63 yards on 31 carries. So in actuality, the run game once again fell on Turner overburdened shoulders. The Falcons by signing Leonard, secure a player who has versatility out of the backfield and could fill in for Turner in a pinch at a much lower cost than what Snelling would I believe garner. Even if Snelling comes cheap, this might not be a bad idea to see which of these players is the better fit in training camp. Fact is though, the Falcons need to bring into the fold a better complimentary player to Turner, most likely via the draft.

DRAFT

1:27 - Kyle Rudolph; TE/Notre Dame – 6’6 265

I indicated this would be my selection at #27 in my 2010 Post-Mortem and really my thinking hasn’t changed much, if at all. I recognize that teams don’t ‘require’ a TE to be productive in the passing game. But even with Gonzalez not retiring, he simply doesn’t pose a threat to defenses anymore. He’s reliable still but only within 10 yards of the LOS. And behind him, the Falcons have Justin Pellee and Michael Palmer. While the Falcons seem high on Palmer, it’s possible that within 2 years – none of these TE’s could be rostered. Rudolph is a hands catcher and already has an NFL body for the position. At least in 2011, the Falcons could pose a much more dangerous look in 2 TE sets than they could with previous personnel which could open up the middle of the field for Ryan. The Senior Bowl seemed to help Lance Kendricks and Luke Stocker up their draft value, but I still believe Rudolph is the cream of this TE class and as such, securing the best player at his position, a position of forthcoming need, is a wise move for the Falcons.

2:59 - Randall Cobb; WR/Kentucky – 5’11 185

Cobb might be the most versatile player in this draft and I actually peg his chances of being available at this spot at less than 50%. But in addition to playmakers, one thing the Falcons offense also lacked was versatility and Cobb has it in spades. In addition to 1661 career receiving yards, Cobb also accumulated 1313 career rushing yards and played QB as a freshman at Kentucky. He actually scored more TD’s rushing at Kentucky than receiving (22:13). One other thing that might also work in Cobb’s favor is his prior experience at QB. I remember Kerry Meier talking about how his experience at QB helped him think like one when he was getting open…this might also apply to Cobb.
Mike Mularkey was able to bring his offense in Pittsburgh some dramatic flair when they drafted Antwan Randle-El and Cobb could be that type of player for the Falcons. I don’t think Harry Douglas could have been any less effective than he was in 2010 and while we can excuse one season of poor production and impact coming off an ACL injury, the Falcons have to protect themselves here and secure another weapon for Ryan in the passing game in the event that Douglas simply isn’t that good. This will be a very intriguing training camp battle because if Douglas doesn’t win the slot WR battle, he could be out of a job since he doesn’t contribute on Special Teams.

3:91 - Kendrick Burney; CB/North Carolina – 5’9 185

In 2008, the Falcons selected Chevis Jackson in Round 3. Within 2 years, he was on the street. In 2009, the Falcons selected Chris Owens. Within 2 years, Aaron Rodgers had essentially committed football rape in a playoff game on him. The Falcons have struggled to draft well at this position under Dimitroff. 2010 5th round pick Dominique Franks was essentially red-shirted his rookie season, seeing only 3 snaps on defense. But at the end of the day, the Falcons have Dunta Robinson, Brent Grimes and Brian Williams as reliable options at the position. Other than that, the position simply is very unstable. Burney was suspended the first 6 games of the 2010 season for dealings with an agent. I know the Falcons place a strong emphasis on character and keeping ones nose clean…I’m not sure if violating an NCAA protocol would scare them off, but Burney was a playmaker during his time at NC. Of his 11 career INT’s, Burney took 3 back for TD’s. Burney is built and made to play the nickel corner position, a position the Falcons have struggled to fill. He could challenge for the starting role right away.

4:123 - Jacquizz Rodgers; RB/Oregon State – 5’7 195

One of the most underrated and overlooked aspects of the Falcons lack of explosiveness these past two seasons has been the absence of Jerious Norwood. We simply had no one who could take advantage of the wear down effect our pound and ground running attack had with their speed. Norwood was ridiculously fast, and Rodgers doesn’t have that type of speed, but he has a little more wiggle and his receiving skills out of the backfield are superior to most backs coming out of college. If he can handle blitz pick-ups, and that’s a significant if, then he could slide into being the new passing down situational weapon for the Falcons.

5:155 - Jah Reid; OT/Central Florida – 6’7 325

Reid is clearly a developmental prospect and even at Central Florida, largely played RT. He is seen as a future RT, but he has the measurables to convert to LT over time. The Falcons have shown patience with developmental lineman (Reynolds, Hawley, Johnson), so with the prospect of some of that unit perhaps moving on and/or underperforming, the Falcons take a flier on a kid who could develop into something significant.

6:187 - Nathan Enderle; QB/Idaho – 6’5 240

This may appear to be a wasted pick, but I continue to believe that when looking out long range, John Parker Wilson simply doesn’t have the ability to be a quality back-up in this league. Chris Redman, while not close to retiring age is 34. In 2-3 years, it would be worth having someone you felt comfortable handing the reins as primary clipboard holder to. Enderle is a prospect who looks the part and was starting to show up on some national radars last year. But a subpar senior season, coupled with an Idaho pedigree, has probably made him late round fodder. But from a tools perspective, he actually holds some intrigue and should push JPW as the #3 QB from a potential standpoint right off the bat.

7:219 - Quentin Davie; OLB-DE/Northwestern – 6’4 238

Davie is one of those tweeners IMO who might need to bulk up to become a situational rusher at the next level since his speed s more indicative of the position. Northwestern used him as a blitzing LB often and he showed quite a bit of activity behind the LOS (25.5 TFL’s for his career), so the Falcons will need to determine what kind of player he should be at the next level. At a minimum though he’s a smart kid who has leadership traits that will work hard to maximize whatever NFL potential he has.


7:220 - Mark Legree; FS/Appalachian State – 6’0 210

If Legree were 10 pounds and 1-2 inches bigger, he’d most definitely be a mid-round or better prospect. But at 210 (what he weighed in at at the NFLPA Game; listed in college at 200), he’s small for the safety position but he doesn’t have the speed/skills to play CB. However, he showed a penchant for causing turnovers in his college career (22 INT’s) and with Erik Coleman in his last season, the Falcons need an option at that 4th safety position should they choose to cut ties with him.

Answering Your Questions Before You Ask Them…?

Where is the DE? – I’m simply not convinced that a DE would have any impact based on our current talent level at the position. Jamaal Anderson and Chauncey Davis have their limitations no doubt, but they have turned into solid pros. I hear a lot of folks clamoring for Ray Edwards…well Ray Edwards didn’t become an 8 sack/year pass rusher until his 4th season. His first 3 seasons, he accumulated 13 sacks. Kroy Biermann has 10 through his first 3 seasons. He’s shown that he belongs in the NFL, he simply needs to take that next step. Edwards has never produced a double digit sack season but rest assured, someone is going to overpay for his services. It should not be us. As for using an early round selection on a DE, I’m of the opinion that we’ve neglected the skill position players too long and it is simply a greater priority.

TE in Round 1? Gonzo is still here…!

Yes, but Gonzo is year-to-year and it’s likely that 2011 could be his final year. Not only that, but the Falcons other two TE’s; Pellee and Palmer don’t pose a threat in the passing game. So in 2/3 TE formations, neither is likely to hurt the defense. And since we got practically no production from our slot receiver, we almost had to play 10-on-11 in passing situations this year when you consider the lack of production we got from Douglas/Peelee/Palmer. I’m not blaming Pellee. He is what he is which is a solid blocking TE. And Palmer was a UDFA and he might have growth potential, but I don’t think we should depend on his development as the future of the TE position with the Falcons. With Rudolph, depending on his ability and prowess, you might be able to play around with formations that put a TE on the line and in the slot. TE’s that could both catch the ball. Overall, while you don’t necessarily need to replace Gonzo with a similar type talent, Rudolph is the best pass catcher available most likely in this slot and thus warrants the pick. Fact is, you look at what the Patriots did this yearout of 2 TE formations and you begin to see the possibilities for the 2011 season.

I think ‘insert player name here’ won’t be available when we pick.

This probably applies to Cobb/Burney/Rodgers.

RB is an easy one to justify as far as Rodgers being available in Round 4. In the last 3 drafts, 28 RB’s have been selected prior to the 123rd pick in the draft – 17 in the past two drafts. So you are talking about the 9th-10th rated RB on the board being available in that slot. Rodgers appears to be tracking around that value if not lower. I think the possibility is very good that he’s still there. If he blows up at the combine though with a sub 4.4, that could change. With that said, if Rodgers by some chance isn’t available here, a player I like to potentially fill this role though not in thr 4th round would be Mario Fannin.

Burney is the real question mark. He showed up extremely well at the Senior Bowl last week and this does not appear to be a particularly deep CB class. I would feel more comfortable about getting him if we had a pick in the mid-area of the round versus its latter stages. I’d be reluctant to trade up in this years draft with a 2011 pick, but I would consider trading up if we swapped next years (2012) 3rd rounder with a trading partners 4th rounder. 33 CB’s have been selected in the last 3 drafts prior to the 91st pick, which tabs the #12 rated CB as being available. Burney, probably won’t crack the top 2 rounds because he doesn’t compensate for his lack of size with blazing speed…and in Round 3, teams may be looking for potential base defense starting CB’s. But Burney looks to be a great fit in our secondary based upon a position we’ve struggled to fill with any playmaking ability.

Cobb I think stands a good chance of being available when we pick in Round 2. We haven’t seen a consistent pattern in drafted WR prior to the 59th pick these last 3 years (2010 -3; 2009 – 8; 2008 – 10, with no first rounders). Strength (or lack thereof) has a lot to do with this position and this years class appears solid at the top with some elite potential (A.J. Green, Julio Jones) but once you get past the next 6-7 WR’s starts to drop in quality. If there is a run for WR’s in Round 2, then Cobb most likely doesn’t find his way to us. But he appears to be valued as a late 2nd rounder which is where we obviously pick.
I’m as always happy to engage in thoughtful debate and dialogue on this proposal. I think previous years have shown my mind can be changed when solid arguments are presented. Hope you enjoy.

[papachaz]

great breakdown of your thoughts. can't say i agree or disagree with any except the DE. ok so maybe Bierman makes his 4th year his breakout year. but what if he doesn't? then we're still doomed there, and abe isn't getting any younger. Of course i do realize an 'impact DE' in the draft isn't a real STRONG possibility, but hey, miracle can happen, can't they?

[Swift Is a Die Hard]

I have a lot of issues here ..

Brent Grimes has played great and basically outshined our other corner but there is no way in the world we can afford that type of contract for Grimes and Dunta ..Thats almost 80+million tied up in cornerbacks. I dont see that type of contract for Grimes based off one year...shit if Grimes is expecting that kind of money were better off just going after Nnamdi who be 3 mil+ more then but more of a shut down corner then Grimes ever can be ...


Kyle Rudolph - has anyone watch Notre Dame games..This kid is not a freak at TE he wont stretch the middle of the field nor does he have the great size of a guy like Todd Heap. This would be one of the worst decisions ever to draft him at this spot . He is a glorified Justin Peele . No sense to spend a 1st round pick on a TE even though this can be Tony G last season we can find much better value later in draft then drafting this kid. He is solid but he is not a cant miss talent or a prospect that would make a huge impact his rookie year..


We need to bring in a VETERAN PASS RUSHER DE

if TD is smart he goes out in Free agency and gets one that is a proven commodity

Kiwi or Ray Edwards.... this will allow Sidbury and Bierman some room for improvement and growth while not have to look at a first round pick get most of the snaps


then a mid level wr free agent a guy like Malcom Floyd he can be our 2/3 wr that can stretch field and get downfield has great body control and young enough to develop




Then 1st round pick can be in my eyes
1)RB .......look to replace Turner in 2 years but he must show he can be also a 3rd down speed back but more then that down the road
2)C ......look to replace McClure
3)WR...a fast speed/slot guy


then rest can be looked for depth and what not

[TonyGraziani]

Offseason-I love it
Draft:
1- good pick, better if we can trade down just a bit(i.e., Mallett falls, Bills want him or something like that) and get another pick
2- love it
3- NOOOO!!!! Call me superstitious, but I NEVER wanna see us dreaft a CB in the 3rd round again. It's crazy how little success TD has had drafting CBs up to this point when he was a DB scout. (No Swift-o)
4- great pick
5- sounds like Reynolds, ok pick
6- EXCELLENT pick. JPW is more Shockley than Schaub IMO, and needs to be upgraded
7a- idk the player, but I like really like the concept
7b- Schilly is already on the team haha. Seriously, Coleman's replacement needs to be more of a SS type. Having another small guy wouldn't be right IMO.

I'm not TOO hung up on the lack of DE, but I would rather see one(or a pass rushing threat OLB) in the 3rd then any CB. Overall, beyond excellent work my man.

[g-dawg]

as always, a good read TDW......really, you should be the AJC beatwriter for Falcons - your stuff is 1,000% better than the drivel that Ledbetter writes everyday - hard to believe he gets paid for his crap.

Regarding your breakdown:

What I like:
I like the analysis on the Falcons players to be re-signed and the ones to be let go.
1)All are strategic in nature - Brent Grimes/Tyson Clabo are too valuable to lose.
2)I agree that Harvey Dahl should be the "odd man out" even though it will create waves.
3)If Mike Petersen/Brian Williams want to come back for 1 year deals at league minimums then I agree that would be money well spent.
4) I like Kyle Rudolph if he can be shown to be healthy and would think that would be a great pick at #27 - health is key for me though.

What I don't like:
1) I don't like the Matt Light signing. I think he is in decline and I also think he would still get paid more than what you have him at. I do think the Falcons need to "upgrade" Sam Baker but i don't want to do it with an old player in decline. My ideal 1st round draft pick would be LT-Derek Sherrod if he fell to #27.
2) I'm "OK" with Randall Cobb but like some other players better in 2nd round.
3) Not that crazy about the rest of your draft either as I just think Falcons should get a little more BANG out of their draft than all the developmental players you list here.
4) Sorry but your lack of addressing the Defensive End position in free agency is just downright "NFL GM Malpractice" . Falcons cannot wait around "hoping" for Bierrman to kick in to a front-line player. Falcons have been doing that with JA98 for 4 years - Kroy Bierrman is a valuable player but he is no DE anchor and we MUST upgrade the position. I think you underestimate the urgency that Thomas Dimitroff/Mike Smith feel right now from Arthur Blank to take this to the next level - if you are not going foward then you are moving backward. Maybe the Falcons go for Ray Edwards, Vikings or maybe for a more inexpensive alternative like Mathias Kiwanuka, Giants - but something must be done at D-End position - and it must be done this year!!!

[TheDirtyWord]

(02-02-2011 04:48 PM)Swift Is a Die Hard Wrote:  I have a lot of issues here ..

Brent Grimes has played great and basically outshined our other corner but there is no way in the world we can afford that type of contract for Grimes and Dunta ..Thats almost 80+million tied up in cornerbacks. I dont see that type of contract for Grimes based off one year...shit if Grimes is expecting that kind of money were better off just going after Nnamdi who be 3 mil+ more then but more of a shut down corner then Grimes ever can be ...


Kyle Rudolph - has anyone watch Notre Dame games..This kid is not a freak at TE he wont stretch the middle of the field nor does he have the great size of a guy like Todd Heap. This would be one of the worst decisions ever to draft him at this spot . He is a glorified Justin Peele . No sense to spend a 1st round pick on a TE even though this can be Tony G last season we can find much better value later in draft then drafting this kid. He is solid but he is not a cant miss talent or a prospect that would make a huge impact his rookie year..


We need to bring in a VETERAN PASS RUSHER DE

if TD is smart he goes out in Free agency and gets one that is a proven commodity

Kiwi or Ray Edwards.... this will allow Sidbury and Bierman some room for improvement and growth while not have to look at a first round pick get most of the snaps


then a mid level wr free agent a guy like Malcom Floyd he can be our 2/3 wr that can stretch field and get downfield has great body control and young enough to develop




Then 1st round pick can be in my eyes
1)RB .......look to replace Turner in 2 years but he must show he can be also a 3rd down speed back but more then that down the road
2)C ......look to replace McClure
3)WR...a fast speed/slot guy


then rest can be looked for depth and what not

While I do believe that Kiwunuka should be OK following his neck injury, are you prepared to go long term big bucks on a guy whose season was ended by a bulging disk?

While I agree that the Robinson signing at the moment looks exorbitant (to put it kindly), I think it's almost reckless spending if you cahse Kiwunuka. And he won't sign a short term deal with a team/franchise he doesn't know.

As for Edwards, my retort stays the same. There is no elite DE (like Peppers) where you say, I'm going after that guy because he instantly makes my defense better. Is Edwards better than Biermann at this point...yeah probably, but not $30-35M better which is what it would probably take to sign him. Not just that but if you sign Edwards to that type of contract and then Biermann emerges like Grimes has (these last 2 years, not 1)...al of a sudden you either lose a quality DE in Biermann or now you're paying 2 DE's big money.

As for Asomugha, he just signed a contract in 2009 that guaranteed him $28.5M over 3 years, and whose total value was $45M+...an average of $15M. If you think he's signing a deal that would pay him any less than $12M/year total value, well...let's just say I think he craps on $10M/year offers. So for $25M less over 5 years...yes, Grimes is A-OK.

We can argue on prospects all day long...certainly neither of us knows who will pan out and not at this point. I do think 6'6 260-265 is phenominal size for a TE and his hands are great. His speed...? We'll see at the NFL level. But I think the logic is absolutely spot on...

As for a guy like Malcom Floyd, I think that's another case where we're chasing a guy who'll get overpaid whose career high in receiving yards is 776. I know he looked good this year prior to getting injured, but that was as a #1WR with Vincent Jackson out. And while I love Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers is simply a better QB at this stage of their careers. So Floyd probably secures a significant contract based off nothing more than spurts...something you seem to hold against Brent Grimes (unfairly I might add as Grimes has 13 INT's and 40 PDF's in the last 2 seasons).

[TheDirtyWord]

(02-02-2011 04:54 PM)TonyGraziani Wrote:  Offseason-I love it
Draft:
1- good pick, better if we can trade down just a bit(i.e., Mallett falls, Bills want him or something like that) and get another pick
2- love it
3- NOOOO!!!! Call me superstitious, but I NEVER wanna see us dreaft a CB in the 3rd round again. It's crazy how little success TD has had drafting CBs up to this point when he was a DB scout. (No Swift-o)
4- great pick
5- sounds like Reynolds, ok pick
6- EXCELLENT pick. JPW is more Shockley than Schaub IMO, and needs to be upgraded
7a- idk the player, but I like really like the concept
7b- Schilly is already on the team haha. Seriously, Coleman's replacement needs to be more of a SS type. Having another small guy wouldn't be right IMO.

I'm not TOO hung up on the lack of DE, but I would rather see one(or a pass rushing threat OLB) in the 3rd then any CB. Overall, beyond excellent work my man.

I actually do think that we could get Rudolph a bit later, so a trade down scenario would be viable. However...

1) I hate mocks that include trade down scenarios because now we're just moving pieces around to fit our vision of what's good for the Falcons and not really considering on an equal scale what would possess the other teams to want to move forward with the deal.

2) The Patriots have not only the pick behind us (#28), but #33 as well. Which means they can underbid us on return investment and quite likely use the draft pick breeding grounds of 2012 and 2013 to stockpile picks in those drafts. As it stands now, they have 2 picks in each of the first 3 rounds this year...I have to think they will not pick 6 players, instead choosing flexibility in future drafts by trading away this years assets.

[Peyton]

Great post.

I agree with you about skill position players...this off season is going to have to be heavy on them in the draft and possibly in FA.

I do think the Falcons are going to try and get a DE though...even if Kroy is the answer on his side, and I don't think he is, Abe only has a couple more good years left.

[TheDirtyWord]

(02-02-2011 05:09 PM)g-dawg Wrote:  as always, a good read TDW......really, you should be the AJC beatwriter for Falcons - your stuff is 1,000% better than the drivel that Ledbetter writes everyday - hard to believe he gets paid for his crap.

Regarding your breakdown:

What I like:
I like the analysis on the Falcons players to be re-signed and the ones to be let go.
1)All are strategic in nature - Brent Grimes/Tyson Clabo are too valuable to lose.
2)I agree that Harvey Dahl should be the "odd man out" even though it will create waves.
3)If Mike Petersen/Brian Williams want to come back for 1 year deals at league minimums then I agree that would be money well spent.
4) I like Kyle Rudolph if he can be shown to be healthy and would think that would be a great pick at #27 - health is key for me though.

What I don't like:
1) I don't like the Matt Light signing. I think he is in decline and I also think he would still get paid more than what you have him at. I do think the Falcons need to "upgrade" Sam Baker but i don't want to do it with an old player in decline. My ideal 1st round draft pick would be LT-Derek Sherrod if he fell to #27.
2) I'm "OK" with Randall Cobb but like some other players better in 2nd round.
3) Not that crazy about the rest of your draft either as I just think Falcons should get a little more BANG out of their draft than all the developmental players you list here.
4) Sorry but your lack of addressing the Defensive End position in free agency is just downright "NFL GM Malpractice" . Falcons cannot wait around "hoping" for Bierrman to kick in to a front-line player. Falcons have been doing that with JA98 for 4 years - Kroy Bierrman is a valuable player but he is no DE anchor and we MUST upgrade the position. I think you underestimate the urgency that Thomas Dimitroff/Mike Smith feel right now from Arthur Blank to take this to the next level - if you are not going foward then you are moving backward. Maybe the Falcons go for Ray Edwards, Vikings or maybe for a more inexpensive alternative like Mathias Kiwanuka, Giants - but something must be done at D-End position - and it must be done this year!!!

As for Light, I think people are sending him to the old folks home a bit too soon. He's not playing at the level he was playing at 2-3 years ago, but he's still solid. For the Pats, they simply have a younger player at a cheaper price who can man the position in Vollmer. You may be right in that my proposed contract simply won't be enough.

Fact is though that Baker simply hasn't gotten the job done which has been a real disappointment. I thought he was showing signs toward the middle of the season but he never showed any level of consistency and at time was downright dreadful. With Light, you know you are getting a stogap, but a stopgap that you know exactly what he is which is a steady if unspectacular player. That represents a significant upgrade. As for Sherrod, I do like him, but 1) I think skills position players take precedence given our dearth of having drafted any these last two seasons and 2) that would make two LT's in the last 4 drafts in Round 1...with no guarantee that Sherrod makes the leap from college to pro.

[Swift Is a Die Hard]

(02-02-2011 05:29 PM)TheDirtyWord Wrote:  While I do believe that Kiwunuka should be OK following his neck injury, are you prepared to go long term big bucks on a guy whose season was ended by a bulging disk?

While I agree that the Robinson signing at the moment looks exorbitant (to put it kindly), I think it's almost reckless spending if you cahse Kiwunuka. And he won't sign a short term deal with a team/franchise he doesn't know.

As for Edwards, my retort stays the same. There is no elite DE (like Peppers) where you say, I'm going after that guy because he instantly makes my defense better. Is Edwards better than Biermann at this point...yeah probably, but not $30-35M better which is what it would probably take to sign him. Not just that but if you sign Edwards to that type of contract and then Biermann emerges like Grimes has (these last 2 years, not 1)...al of a sudden you either lose a quality DE in Biermann or now you're paying 2 DE's big money.

As for Asomugha, he just signed a contract in 2009 that guaranteed him $28.5M over 3 years, and whose total value was $45M+...an average of $15M. If you think he's signing a deal that would pay him any less than $12M/year total value, well...let's just say I think he craps on $10M/year offers. So for $25M less over 5 years...yes, Grimes is A-OK.

We can argue on prospects all day long...certainly neither of us knows who will pan out and not at this point. I do think 6'6 260-265 is phenominal size for a TE and his hands are great. His speed...? We'll see at the NFL level. But I think the logic is absolutely spot on...

As for a guy like Malcom Floyd, I think that's another case where we're chasing a guy who'll get overpaid whose career high in receiving yards is 776. I know he looked good this year prior to getting injured, but that was as a #1WR with Vincent Jackson out. And while I love Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers is simply a better QB at this stage of their careers. So Floyd probably secures a significant contract based off nothing more than spurts...something you seem to hold against Brent Grimes (unfairly I might add as Grimes has 13 INT's and 40 PDF's in the last 2 seasons).

I actually think Kiwi would come more of a bargain cause of the injury . The Giants have only offered a 1 year deal and let him build it off that I think some teams will back off and he could come at a risk reward with more $$ on top ..I also think Floyd will come as a bargain as well there are other wrs on market . I can see him pulling same kind of contract Michael Jenkins brought in .


Edwards/Kiwi are def significant upgrades over Bierman imo plus bring in a veteran pass rusher and that allows Bierman still to grow

I think you bring up key opponent in the kid from Notre Dame does he have the NFL speed to stretch middle of the field you need that as a TE . I think eh can be reliable but I dont see the play making threat ..


I would love to have Grimes but if he is wanting a 5 year 35 million contract that is very steep mind you the other $ we spent on the dum Dunta Robinson . If there is a way to get rid of Dunta contract im fine with signing Grimes but if we cant and have all that money tied up on corners who basically were ALL exploited in playoff game its just bad management