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RFlagg · (This post was last modified: 09-16-2010 02:14 PM by RFlagg.)

I went through and pulled data for each individual game since Mike Smith became head coach and also stats specific to Ryan & Turner. I included the playoff game against Arizona in the analysis and came up with some interesting stats. Here are some highlights:

The Falcons are 20-14 under Mike Smith, 20-12 when Ryan starts, and 18-11 when Turner starts.
As a team, the Falcons have a QB Rating of 82.5, Matt Ryan has a QB Rating of 83.0.
The Falcons have failed to through a TD pass in only 7 games under Mike Smith. They are 2-5 in those games.
The Falcons average 4.2 Y/A under Smith, Turner averages 4.5.
The Falcons have failed to rush for a TD 12 times under Mike Smith. They are 7-5 in those games.
In their last 7 games, the Falcons only rushed for 1 TD. They are 4-3 in those games.
The Falcons have failed to score any TDs in 3 games under Smith. They scored 9 points in all 3 games and lost.
When Ryan throws the ball 30 or less times, the Falcons are 14-1.
The Falcons are 15-3 when rushing the ball 30 or more times.
In the 13 games where the offensive line has not allowed a sack, the Falcons are 9-4.

I haven't had a chance to do any kind of analysis on the defense yet. Give me some time and I'll see what I can come up with. I'm planning to include a turnover analysis in that one.

***phocis850*** · 09-16-2010, 02:21 PM

Those stats really show what MM is looking at.

In the last 7 games we only scored one TD on the ground? Scary.

babuka · (This post was last modified: 09-16-2010 02:29 PM by babuka.)

The Falcons does not lose because Matt Ryan throws more than 30 passes, they lose because he is having to throw a bunch of passes because the Falcons are trying to score late in the game in a hurry. Generally to a really good team.

The Falcons do not win because they run the ball 30 times. The Falcons run the ball a lot in games in which they are ahead and they are running the clock out late in the game. Generally to a bad team.

Ryan throwing TD passes is more important than Turner rushing for a TD.

You don't win because you run the ball, you run because you are winning. Being a good rushing team is more important when you are winning and you are trying to close the game out, than at any other point in the game besides the opening drive.

RFlagg · 09-16-2010, 02:47 PM

(09-16-2010 02:27 PM)babuka Wrote: The Falcons does not lose because Matt Ryan throws more than 30 passes, they lose because he is having to throw a bunch of passes because the Falcons are trying to score late in the game in a hurry. Generally to a really good team.

The Falcons do not win because they run the ball 30 times. The Falcons run the ball a lot in games in which they are ahead and they are running the clock out late in the game. Generally to a bad team.

Ryan throwing TD passes is more important than Turner rushing for a TD.

You don't win because you run the ball, you run because you are winning. Being a good rushing team is more important when you are winning and you are trying to close the game out, than at any other point in the game besides the opening drive.

Very good points. Another thing I just noticed (but I'm pretty sure I knew already),
of Ryan's 12 losses, 11 have come on the road. His 12 losses were to:

2008 - @Tampa Bay (9-7), @Carolina (12-5), @Philadelphia (11-7-1), Denver (8-8), @New Orleans (8-8), @Arizona (12-8)
2009 - @New England (10-7), @Dallas (12-6), @New Orleans (16-3), @Carolina(8-8), @NY Giants (8-8)
2010 - @Pittsburgh

In the 11 losses from 2008-09, the teams that beat us finished a combined 114-75-1, a combined .602 winning percentage. While I'd like to be beating the good teams, the nice thing is that these games have gotten closer over time, from 15 point losses to Tampa and Carolina in '08 to overtime losses to the Giants and Steelers by a combined 9 points.

Duff_Man · 09-16-2010, 03:13 PM

Thanks for the stats. Does rushing take into consideration the 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 QB sneaks? We seem to do that a lot.

RFlagg · 09-16-2010, 03:17 PM

(09-16-2010 03:13 PM)Duff_Man Wrote: Thanks for the stats. Does rushing take into consideration the 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 QB sneaks? We seem to do that a lot.

Yes, the rushing is every play considered a run. I'll see if I can get a number without those added in.

***Peyton*** · 09-16-2010, 03:19 PM

(09-16-2010 02:47 PM)RFlagg Wrote: Very good points. Another thing I just noticed (but I'm pretty sure I knew already),
of Ryan's 12 losses, 11 have come on the road. His 12 losses were to:

2008 - @Tampa Bay (9-7), @Carolina (12-5), @Philadelphia (11-7-1), Denver (8-8), @New Orleans (8-8), @Arizona (12-8)
2009 - @New England (10-7), @Dallas (12-6), @New Orleans (16-3), @Carolina(8-8), @NY Giants (8-8)
2010 - @Pittsburgh

In the 11 losses from 2008-09, the teams that beat us finished a combined 114-75-1, a combined .602 winning percentage. While I'd like to be beating the good teams, the nice thing is that these games have gotten closer over time, from 15 point losses to Tampa and Carolina in '08 to overtime losses to the Giants and Steelers by a combined 9 points.

I'd be interested in knowing the combined record of all the teams the Falcons beat in those two years.

**Tandy** · 09-16-2010, 03:41 PM

(09-16-2010 02:21 PM)phocis850 Wrote: Those stats really show what MM is looking at.

In the last 7 games we only scored one TD on the ground? Scary.

Turner was hurt during that period - he tried to play in the Tampa game - but went out hurt again after a few runs - and then he might have had one snap in the Jets game. Basically - he played in 1 of those 7 games.

Ryan was out of 2.9 of those games as well.

RFlagg · 09-16-2010, 03:46 PM

(09-16-2010 03:19 PM)Peyton Wrote: I'd be interested in knowing the combined record of all the teams the Falcons beat in those two years.

During the 2008-09 seasons, the Falcons 20 wins have come against teams that are a combined 129-198, a .394 winning percentage. The Falcons have beaten 4 teams in the season they made the playoffs (2008 - Carolina, San Diego, Minnesota 2009 - NY Jets).

In that same time period, the Falcons 13 losses (which adds in the two sans Ryan) came to teams that went a combined 141-84-1, a .626 winning percentage. Of the 13 losses, 8 came at the hands of playoff teams (2008 - Carolina, Philadelphia, Arizona 2009 - New England, Dallas, New Orleans twice and Philadelphia).

***Peyton*** · 09-16-2010, 03:51 PM

(09-16-2010 03:46 PM)RFlagg Wrote: During the 2008-09 seasons, the Falcons 20 wins have come against teams that are a combined 129-198, a .394 winning percentage. The Falcons have beaten 4 teams in the season they made the playoffs (2008 - Carolina, San Diego, Minnesota 2009 - NY Jets).

In that same time period, the Falcons 13 losses (which adds in the two sans Ryan) came to teams that went a combined 141-84-1, a .626 winning percentage. Of the 13 losses, 8 came at the hands of playoff teams (2008 - Carolina, Philadelphia, Arizona 2009 - New England, Dallas, New Orleans twice and Philadelphia).

That's real interesting stuff. It's kind of like the Falcons are very very good at winning the games that they are supposed to win but they struggle to ever get a win against the elites of the league.