NFL: Why Do The NFL Schedule Makers Hate Atlanta?

[RFlagg]

I know Atlanta just finished playing their 3rd opponent of the season coming off a BYE (and managed to win all three). This isn't the first time the Falcons have played a lot of teams coming a BYE, and in fact, only Philadelphia has played more this season (4). However, the Falcons also do not have successive home games all season and we all remember the 2009 schedule that saw us play 4 teams coming off a BYE.

This got me curious, just how many teams have the Falcons played coming off a BYE? I needed some guideline to find this out, so I went back to when the divisions realigned in 2002. What I found shocked me. In 11 seasons, the Falcons have played 18 teams coming off a BYE. 18! That's the most in the NFL by 3 games (Buffalo, Dallas, Tennessee). But what really enraged me was when I looked at the bottom of my spreadsheet and found that there are 12 teams that have played less than 11 teams coming off a BYE in the past 11 seasons. Here's my chart.

Atlanta - 18
Tennessee - 15
Dallas - 15
Buffalo - 15
Cleveland - 14
Houston - 14
Miami - 13
Green Bay - 13
Philadelphia - 13
San Diego - 13
San Francisco - 12
Denver - 12
Kansas City - 12
Baltimore - 12
Detroit - 11
Tampa Bay - 11
New Orleans - 11
Chicago - 11
Seattle - 11
Washington - 11
St. Louis - 10
Jacksonville - 10
NY Jets - 9
Indianapolis - 9
Oakland - 9
Minnesota - 8
NY Giants - 8
New England - 8
Cincinnati - 7
Pittsburgh - 7
Carolina - 6
Arizona - 4

How in the hell have we played 18 teams coming off a BYE in 11 years and the Cardinals have played 4? What do the schedule makers have against us?

As an afterword, I'd like to find a way to get some media attention on this subject, but without sounding like a sore Falcons fan who's crying about the schedule. Any ideas?

[RockHoward]

Very interesting work.

I think the next logical step is to look at game results and see if a pattern emerges that is different from the overall patterns for the same teams.

Other interesting lines of attack: looking at days off between games and relating that to the impact on game results and/or player injuries.

Ultimately you have to show a connection between the schedule and either overall fairness or player safety to turn any heads. Ultimately demonstrating a measurable "days of rest" advantage would become almost as well known as "home field advantage" if, and this is the big if, the numbers support that conclusion.

I should note that the bye week advantage should be lower this year and in years moving forward since the CBA specifies that the players get 4 full days off during the bye week. This somewhat limits the extra prep that can be done on the next game.

Again nice work. I will be thinking about this some more and might even take on some of the work to discover if the schedule really is a source if unfairness and/or impacted player safety.

[Jesus]

I think it totally makes sense. Atlanta has the busiest airport in America. So it just makes sense after a bye that teams pass through Atlanta on their way to their next game.

I like this schedule this year. I know each week whether it is a home or away game without having to look at the schedule. The Falcons haven't played consecutive home games since November 20 & 27 of last year, which makes it an entire year. This includes the playoffs last year as well. That means, including to the end of this year, 22 straight weeks with out a home stand.

[phocis850]

I believe that if all the numbers get crunched and sorted into some type of graph/table, we could see some real noise about this.

Great find so far.

[RFlagg]

(11-20-2012 01:42 PM)phocis850 Wrote:  I believe that if all the numbers get crunched and sorted into some type of graph/table, we could see some real noise about this.

Great find so far.

I've got this saved in an excel spreadsheet at the moment, which actually really opens up the possibilities of doing more to it. I just need to find the time. I had some free time this morning while waiting on a server migration, but that's finished now and its back to work.

I'll post more info later when I get a chance to do more number crunching.

[RnB]

It is very interesting work, GJ compiling the data. I don't know how much more work and analysis would be required for it to be considered "newsworthy", but this is a good start. Rock is right, there needs to be some correlation between separate data sets (number of times facing teams off bye compared to win/loss record) before the data is actually meaningful.

It is definitely surprising to see such disparity in the data. Whether that disparity has had an actual impact on the NFL is where the real story is.

[juraitwaluzka]

This is clearly an effort by Goodell to exercise his power indiscriminately. Not to worry though, it will all blow over in a few weeks, maybe sooner depending on how many thumbs ups are given.

[atljbo]

Not just that but in 18 days... We have to face the Bucs. Saints, and the Giants in a 15 day span

[RFlagg]

(11-20-2012 04:22 PM)atljbo Wrote:  Not just that but in 18 days... We have to face the Bucs. Saints, and the Giants in a 15 day span

Correction, Bucs, Saints, and Panthers. We get the Giants on the 16th, not the 9th.

[ATLBound]

(11-20-2012 04:22 PM)atljbo Wrote:  Not just that but in 18 days... We have to face the Bucs. Saints, and the Giants in a 15 day span

Altho incorrect, who knew the Bucs would be this good. The initial post speaks volumes tho.

Also the Bears schedule the last 2 weeks is pretty brutal