NFL: Top QBs completions over 30 yards in the air

[takeitdown]

Did the research for this and was surprised. Posted it on AFMB, where it likely won't get a lot of traction, but wanted to post it here...

We all are looking for lots of 30 yards or more in the air completions. And as a fan of the deep ball as a tool, I think they need to be thrown to keep the D honest.

But, on looking up those considered deep ball passers, here's what I found:

For all of 2010, Roethlisberger threw 8 completions over 30 yards.
Rodgers, 8 completions.
Brady, 5 completions.
Brees, 8 completions.
Rivers, 8 completions.


Just useful information for when you're pining for tons of those deep completions.

What this shows is that the big plays happen in shorter areas, and tend to depend more on spacing of receivers, and guys being able to make plays when the ball gets in their hands. Getting receivers OPEN in the under 20 yard range is the key to this game, and that depends largely on routes. Where QBs separate themselves is in the 11-20 range, not the 40+ range.

I was surprised at how few completions over 30 yards there actually are. Those guys above are the best guys around, and excluding Brady are considered deep ball guys, and none completed more than 1 ball every 2 games of over 30 yards.

It lets you know where the help needs to come, and at what ranges accuracy is important. This doesn't mean dink and dunk. It means get people open while running from 5-15 yards and hit them in stride and you'll succeed in this league.

[takeitdown]

It's more about the discussion of what we need to fix the passing game. Many people think it's completing a lot of 50 yarders (in the air) and Ryan limits us because he isn't great at that. While I like the deep ball more than most (because I feel it opens up the underneath) it pays to see what REALLY happens with the great QBs. And what REALLY happens is they complete 1 pass over 30 yards every 2 games. They complete 90% of their passes under 20 yards in the air.

The difference, then, is in what happens on those plays. For instance, is it Miles Austin running a crossing play, where he picks up another 20 yards, or is it a button hook with no YAC? Is a guy wide open, or are defender draped on everyone?

Point was, we need to get people more open in the short spaces, and fully utilize the area we know Ryan can do well in...the up to 30 yard passes. We need to throw a bomb or 2 a game, just to keep the D honest...but we REALLY need to hit people in stride 15 yards down the field and let them work with it. That means more throws to the middle of the field instead of the sidelines, and more movement routes.

Still, it's very surprising the top deep guys complete so few. I have to admit it wasn't the answer I was expecting to find.

This makes getting that backshoulder 25 yard fade a la Brees way more important than the 50 yard go.

[Anomaly]

Really nice post.

I remember watching the Pats/Dolphins game week one and pretty much all of Brady's big yardage came on short crossing routes hitting guys on the run. Their WRs made one or two guys miss and they were gone. It seems like we throw more routes where our guys are stopping then catching it, though the Julio catch last week across the middle was a thing of beauty.

[phocis850]

Great find...

If I'm not mistaken, Ryan has 2 already this season.

[phocis850]

+1 for Brady/Welker connection.

[takeitdown]

(10-09-2011 05:23 PM)Va Falcon 88 Wrote:  Really nice post.

I remember watching the Pats/Dolphins game week one and pretty much all of Brady's big yardage came on short crossing routes hitting guys on the run. Their WRs made one or two guys miss and they were gone. It seems like we throw more routes where our guys are stopping then catching it, though the Julio catch last week across the middle was a thing of beauty.

Yep, and even the ones that seem deep, are usually 25 yard passes where the WR is past the corner on a seam route. It seems deep, but is only a 30 yard in the air pass for the QB, which is less than on a 10 yard wide out.

We have to scheme to get our guys open in the short area.

[takeitdown]

(10-09-2011 05:41 PM)phocis850 Wrote:  Great find...

If I'm not mistaken, Ryan has 2 already this season.

Yep, I think so. It makes me hope they throw a few of those, but mix in a lot more 25 yard seam routes...and that they'll learn to throw it up high to Julio or Roddy when they're 25 yards downfield on single coverage and let them get it (a high back fade).

That's where we'll become explosive...and it's a game Ryan can very much play despite not great deep strength.

[phocis850]

(10-09-2011 06:02 PM)takeitdown Wrote:  Yep, I think so. It makes me hope they throw a few of those, but mix in a lot more 25 yard seam routes...and that they'll learn to throw it up high to Julio or Roddy when they're 25 yards downfield on single coverage and let them get it (a high back fade).

That's where we'll become explosive...and it's a game Ryan can very much play despite not great deep strength.

I saw Cam throw a jumper to Smith. Smith out maneuvered for it, came down and ran for a td. Roddy and Julio are both physical guys who can do this. But we've always thrown away from coverage. We are, however, seeing a slow change towards these one-on-one matchups like with that amazing grab Julio had on Seattle.

[takeitdown]

Bumping this back up as it's relevant to the "how do we fix this?" question. We're not going to complete 3 40 yard routes each game. That's not a doable concept. That means we have to get people open shorter, and throw it up for our WRs...how do we get there?