NFL: Tampa Bay Bucaneers

[juraitwaluzka]

(05-22-2012 12:59 PM)monoxide Wrote:  What a palpable way to prove you're point! The sheer statement that I don't know what I'm talking about in itself must prove that I don't know what I'm talking about!

Actually the preceding paragraphs that you did not quote and chose to ignore did a much better job of that.

[juraitwaluzka]

(05-22-2012 12:59 PM)monoxide Wrote:  They're the only site I know that awards "degree of difficulty" points. If a QB completes a pass into double coverage, he gets a better grade than if he throws it to the open player for the same number of yards. If a receiver makes a diving, one-handed catch, then he gets more points than if he catches it in stride with two hands. A complete fucking gimmick IMO.

Doesn't sound like a gimmick to me unless all you are interested in is raw numbers for fantasy football purposes.

Kevin Cone and Roddy White are both equally capable of catching the nicely thrown pass in stride. Being able to make the more difficult plays is one of the main separators between good and great, not just yards. Context matters.

[monoxide]

(05-22-2012 01:21 PM)Beef Wrote:  So the 3 multi-billion dollar industries also known as NFL teams, Fantasy Football, and the world of gambling/betting, who all use PFF and claim it to be the best and most accurate statistical site in football have no significance in your bizzarro world of armchair GM's?

Whatever guy. You're not being very smart about this.

Appeal to authority all you want, I still think it's a comical way that they approach statistics and it's embarrassing how subjective and biased they can be. Looking at the 2011 top players list they came out, having the MVP Tom Brady all the way down to 33 sums it up quite well for me. Looking at this year's list, Evan Mathis over Carl Nicks? laughable. Jordy Nelson over Adrian Peterson? Laughable. Justin Smith at number two? He's not even the best player on his own defense. Navarro Bowman over Patrick Willis? Any Niner fan who watches every game would laugh in your face (and from what I've ready over there on PFF's list, they agree). Eli Manning at 8 in front of Tom Brady? Is this a complete fucking troll? I get it, you guys hate the Patriots as much as I do, but please don't tell me this is coming from the same bums that charge people to read their diarrhea. Now don't get me wrong, I am a fan of some of their stuff, especially the "cut and dry" stuff. With that said, when they "grade" players and attempt to interpret things, they largely do a piss poor job. Pro Football Focus: Where Tyron Smith was better than Joe Thomas.

Alright, I'm done. Now back to the PFF fetish Beef, God forbid somebody disagreeing with you. You're getting sleepy......

[Radical]

What do you have over them though? It's like telling a mechanic that you have to warm up a modern truck before you drive because, "come on man, everyone knows that."

[monoxide]

(05-22-2012 06:34 PM)Radical Wrote:  What do you have over them though? It's like telling a mechanic that you have to warm up a modern truck before you drive because, "come on man, everyone knows that."

My biggest problem with them is the compounding of errors - they base a very large amount of their non-trivial analysis on grading out players in different aspects of the game and grading out teams by correcting for obvious bias. A few years ago, the Raiders were an atrocious team and as a result they had the fewest passing yards against them - it wasn't because their pass defense was amazing it was simply because opposing teams had no reason to pass the ball, they would win the game by scoring 14 points and sitting back. What that meant was that their yards allowed pass defense rank was useless, and being able to correct for that would be really helpful in actually evaluating how good the pass defense was. The problem is when you have inconsistent evaluations of what constitutes a drop, an off target pass, a pass defended, a target, a missed tackle etc. By taking this faulty data and analyzing it, you come up with faulty rankings which are then used to remove bias from other rankings, in the end compounding errors from several different sources into a result that has huge errorbars.

Like I said, I don't think the site is COMPLETELY worthless, as many of it is extremely unique and I can appreciate that to an extent. They are very matter of fact in assignment descretion, and act like not having a playcall is not a problem, instead of making it a factor in their analysis. While I can see how this could be argued as an effective way of rating, I still think it lacks validity and reliability. I guess my biggest issue isn't with PFF itself, but esophagus punctured members who say I don't know "WTF I'm talking about" and conclude that "I don't make sense" simply because I disregard many of their methods. That's AFMB bullshit for lack of a better word.

[pauliwood]

While my opinion is not set in stone regarding PFF, I do agree with Mox that we should not be attacking our own right now, we have plenty of time for that, but right now is not a time for that.

[monoxide]

I will say that Beef is absolutely one of my favorite posters, and I always enjoy reading what he has to say. Even though there's been a few times where he hasn't taken kindly to what I've said (this instance and then a Sproles vs. Rodgers thread), I know that a forum without disagreements is a dead one. I will apologize for what I said as it was predominantly an emotional rant, and hopefully we can agree to disagree. Falcons come first in my life, and this board has been a blessing in terms of talking pure football without the blabbering nonsense.

[takeitdown]

Does anyone have actual links saying PFF is the preferred site of NFL teams, Vegas, and Fantasy Football?

I'm a big fan of advanced football statistics, and appreciate any attempts made, so I use PFF from time to time, but I pick and choose, because some of their stuff seems great, and some seems absurd. If I were a football team, I'd pay for it, but I'd apply a pretty strong filter to the data I take from it...that is, I wouldn't take it at all as definitive, but if they show a DE is great at pressures per attempt rushing (or whatever they name that stat), I might go take another look at the tape, to see if that's what's actually happening. I'd use it as another method to discover gems, but not a lot beyond that.

However, I think groups like this are on the right path, because a lot of more advanced statistics (which unfortunately, require graders, because there simply aren't enough stats put out by the NFL) are more useful than the basic ones.

I just would like to know how NFL teams actually think about them, and how Vegas uses them. If those are actual things, the links would be much appreciated. As it is, I end up using PFF, FO, Advanced Stats, ESPN charting, Pro Football Reference, just to get at some basic stuff that should all be in one place.

[Radical]

I just don't see how perception trumps a team of people utilizing a standardized grading scale that's been endorsed by players and FO staff as being "over 95% accurate."

Some people simply don't grasp scientific method, and this is a general statement, but it seems a lot of people want to fit the facts to match the perception and not let the facts dictate perception. Look at Abraham in 2009. All over the place you read he had a terrible season and he was getting old, he's done. PFF noted that in terms of getting pressure and hits, he was still amongst the best in the league, and that he's clearly not done at this point. Next year, he goes on to have a great statistical year, and all the sudden he's good again. PFF rated Dahl as being a very good RG, he goes on to excel with St Louis and we get raped from the RG position all year, even though everyone said Dahl was average at best. I could go ON and ON and ON with these examples.

[Radical]

(05-23-2012 12:53 AM)takeitdown Wrote:  Does anyone have actual links saying PFF is the preferred site of NFL teams, Vegas, and Fantasy Football?

It's mainly taken from quips from their interviews and whatnot. There's not an "endorsement" page from what I've seen.