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RFlagg · (This post was last modified: 01-04-2013 12:23 PM by RFlagg.)

Seeing as the Falcons have a BYE these week, and combined with the fact that I was curious and bored, I decided to do a little research into how teams with first round BYEs have faired over the years in their first playoff game. To do this, I went back to 1990, when the NFL first went to a 12 team playoff format. In that time, there have been 88 teams to earn a first round BYE with and overall record in their first game of 64-24 (.727). That's a pretty good record and over a 16 game season would be equal to an 11.6-4.4 record.

However, while doing my research I noticed something strange. Early on in this format, teams with first round BYEs rarely lost. Over the first 5 years, they were a combined 18-2 and through 2004, teams with a BYE went 49-11. Since '05, however, teams coming off a BYE are a combined 15-13 in their first playoff game.

When breaking it down as AFC vs. NFC, we see another stark difference. In the current format, AFC teams coming off a BYE are 29-15, while the NFC is 35-9. Through '04, AFC teams were 22-8, NFC 27-3. Since then, AFC teams are just 7-7, NFC 8-6.

I think this paints a pretty clear picture that the first round BYE has not been as helpful in recent years and there might be something to teams getting hot and winning games.

Also, just for fun, here is every team and how many first round BYEs they have had under the current format and their record.

Patriots - 8, 6-1
Steelers - 8, 7-1
49ers - 8, 6-1
Broncos - 5, 3-1
Cowboys - 5, 4-1
Colts - 4, 1-3
Packers - 4, 3-1
Bears - 4, 2-2
Falcons - 4, 2-1
Titans/Oilers - 4, 1-3
Bills - 3, 3-0
Chargers - 3,1-2
Chiefs - 3, 0-3
Raiders - 3, 3-0
Giants - 3, 2-1
Eagles - 3, 3-0
Vikings - 3, 3-0
Rams - 3, 2-1
Ravens - 2, 1-1
Panthers - 2, 1-1
Saints - 2, 2-0
Buccaneers - 2, 2-0
Jets - 1, 1-0
Dolphins - 1, 1-0
Jaguars - 1, 1-0
Redskins - 1, 1-0
Lions - 1, 1-0
Seahawks - 1, 1-0
Browns - 0
Bengals - 0
Texans - 0
Cardinals - 0

juraitwaluzka · 01-04-2013, 01:26 PM

To me, all this says is that the NFL is more competitive than ever, the teams are more equal than they've ever been.

In the early 90's you had the Bills, Cowboys and 49ers much better than everyone else, a combination of better talent, better coaching, better organizations etc... Remember, free agency was relatively new back then. Some organizations figured it out quicker and better than others.

As time goes on, things equal out, everyone catches up. Where it is now is where I imagine that the NFL brass wanted it to end up, where 'Any Given Sunday' carries over to the post season. The differences in record represent more of a difference in preparation and execution than a different in talent (which is obvious if you take it to the extreme - if every team had exactly the same players, ie equal talent, the only thing remaining is prep and execution).

In 1992 it wouldn't matter so much if the Cardinals squeaked in to the playoffs and got hot - back then it wouldn't have been enough to overcome the talent gap. That's less of an issue now. I doubt we will ever see a team as talented as the early 90s Cowboys - as much as I hate them, they played the system perfectly and built one of the all time best teams.

Back in 79, the Rams made the superbowl at 9-7 (going through Dallas and Tampa) but then lost to the Steelers. I don't think another 9-7 team made it to the superbowl until the Cardinals in 2008, then the Giants win it last year.

So, I wouldn't read too much into it as far as making predictions go. It's just going to come down to game planning and execution, as it should be. I think the only trend is that it's harder to win than ever, which leads to exactly the kind of results we are seeing.

Look at the Falcons season - it's why I think there are the close games, much more so than the "reasons" the media tries to come up with. But of course they will try to make something out of nothing (ie sensationalize) because from their perspective it's boring (and less profitable) to just run the same story "The NFL is super-competitive", even though that is the truth. I think it's why we also see stories that once you put logic to it turn out to be ridiculous (well, that and the human nature to crave a soap opera).

Aftermath · 01-04-2013, 01:39 PM

Am I just retarded or are some of these numbers not adding up?

Patriots - 8, 6-1
Steelers - 8, 7-1
49ers - 8, 6-1
Broncos - 5, 3-1
Cowboys - 5, 4-1
Colts - 4, 1-3
Packers - 4, 3-1
Bears - 4, 2-2
Falcons - 4, 2-1
Titans/Oilers - 4, 1-3
Bills - 3, 3-0
Chargers - 3,1-2
Chiefs - 3, 0-3
Raiders - 3, 3-0
Giants - 3, 2-1
Eagles - 3, 3-0
Vikings - 3, 3-0
Rams - 3, 2-1
Ravens - 2, 1-1
Panthers - 2, 1-1
Saints - 2, 2-0
Buccaneers - 2, 2-0
Jets - 1, 1-0
Dolphins - 1, 1-0
Jaguars - 1, 1-0
Redskins - 1, 1-0
Lions - 1, 1-0
Seahawks - 1, 1-0
Browns - 0
Bengals - 0
Texans - 0
Cardinals - 0

RFlagg · 01-04-2013, 01:45 PM

(01-04-2013 01:39 PM)Aftermath Wrote: Am I just retarded or are some of these numbers not adding up?

Patriots - 8, 6-1
Steelers - 8, 7-1
49ers - 8, 6-1
Broncos - 5, 3-1
Cowboys - 5, 4-1
Colts - 4, 1-3
Packers - 4, 3-1
Bears - 4, 2-2
Falcons - 4, 2-1
Titans/Oilers - 4, 1-3
Bills - 3, 3-0
Chargers - 3,1-2
Chiefs - 3, 0-3
Raiders - 3, 3-0
Giants - 3, 2-1
Eagles - 3, 3-0
Vikings - 3, 3-0
Rams - 3, 2-1
Ravens - 2, 1-1
Panthers - 2, 1-1
Saints - 2, 2-0
Buccaneers - 2, 2-0
Jets - 1, 1-0
Dolphins - 1, 1-0
Jaguars - 1, 1-0
Redskins - 1, 1-0
Lions - 1, 1-0
Seahawks - 1, 1-0
Browns - 0
Bengals - 0
Texans - 0
Cardinals - 0

I included their BYE for this season, same as I did for ours.

Aftermath · 01-04-2013, 01:52 PM

(01-04-2013 01:45 PM)RFlagg Wrote: I included their BYE for this season, same as I did for ours.

so I'm just retarded lol, should have seen that. Nice research BTW, crazy how the Bye Week isn't nearly as much an advantage as it used to be.

***phocis850*** · (This post was last modified: 01-05-2013 06:35 PM by phocis850.)

Yea, time off is a blessing and a curse. It really helps to get people healthy and to also better plan and prepare. But, sometimes you can over-prepare and over-analyze things and cause some major issues.

I don't like the break. It's good since we had some guys injured, but we just need to keep playing football.

Aftermath · 01-05-2013, 07:11 PM

(01-05-2013 06:35 PM)phocis850 Wrote: Yea, time off is a blessing and a curse. It really helps to get people healthy and to also better plan and prepare. But, sometimes you can over-prepare and over-analyze things and cause some major issues.

I don't like the break. It's good since we had some guys injured, but we just need to keep playing football.

Agreed

ATLBound · 01-05-2013, 07:43 PM

(01-05-2013 06:35 PM)phocis850 Wrote: Yea, time off is a blessing and a curse. It really helps to get people healthy and to also better plan and prepare. But, sometimes you can over-prepare and over-analyze things and cause some major issues.

I don't like the break. It's good since we had some guys injured, but we just need to keep playing football.

I think we will be better for it actually this year.

babuka · 01-05-2013, 09:47 PM

Still, even with the recent trend, teams with a bye weak reach the NFC championship game 50% of the time. Teams that don't have a harder road because they have to win two games to make the conference championship game. Maybe the advantage is not what it once was, but it is still an advantage. I personally do not buy into the "hot teams" at the end I the year. I think the recent trend involved really good teams with unusually bad starts and injuries, with a little bit of luck. Before long there will be a run of several years where only the 1 & 2 seeds make a run again and the wild cards get shut out.