NFL: Don't ever draft a QB in the bottom half of the 1st round

[Beef]

(04-30-2012 06:28 PM)TonyGraziani Wrote:  Regardless of his age, I never thought of him to be that good. I would say if he was 22 that he may develop into something decent, but the FACT is he simply doesn't have the time(being 28) or the chance(being a 1st round pick) to do so.

The only reason i'm even in this debate is because definitive absolutes of alleged "fact" like this keep being made even though you have absolutely no real possible way to prove it. It's 1000% assumption and guess and no matter how much you argue, THAT is the only fact here.

Either way, lets just take the wait and see approach and eventually we'll find out who's serving crow and who's stuffing it down their pie hole.

[TonyGraziani]

(04-30-2012 06:49 PM)Beef Wrote:  The only reason i'm even in this debate is because definitive absolutes of alleged "fact" like this keep being made even though you have absolutely no real possible way to prove it. It's 1000% assumption and guess and no matter how much you argue, THAT is the only fact here.

Either way, lets just take the wait and see approach and eventually we'll find out who's serving crow and who's stuffing it down their pie hole.

My bad.

It's a fact he's a 28 year old 1st round pick. It's complete speculation on my part that he will need time to develop and/or will likely bust.

That fair?

[illmusic]

You'd need a control group to further back your claim...what is the boom\bust rate for top 10 QBs?

[TonyGraziani]

(04-30-2012 08:46 PM)illmusic Wrote:  You'd need a control group to further back your claim...what is the boom\bust rate for top 10 QBs?

I broke it down to roughly 57%. I didn't break it down as far as I did these because there were so many, but by rough estimate that's what I came out to. So nearly double the % chance he'll work out if taken in the top half of the round.

Another cool stat to see is success rate of 1st Round QBs who were the 3rd or later drafted. Roethlisberger- success, Akili Smith - failure, etc.

[Jesus]

Interesting research. One thing this does prove is that there are no absolutes in the NFL draft. Teams are desperate for success drafting a QB is the fastest way to achieve that success. Before you argue that remember Jake Long. If that draft was to be done over who do you think the Dolphins would have taken?

The draft is a crap shoot. There is no telling whether a player will succeed or not. There are a lot of factors at play. The Browns have a terrible record for developing QBs then again so did the Falcons before Ryan.

The idea that he played baseball professionally helps him because he has already faced the failure at the top. That is one thing no other draftee has seen. Also being
28 makes him boatloads more mature than most.
Another thing to take into consideration is the rookie wage scale. The browns will.have less invested in their QB position than most other teams and they will have a starter with experience and a first round pick. This means they can absorb a bust in two years and be no worse for it.

Take a look at QBs taken 1-2 in the past. Invariably one will fail and it doesn't matter which one came first.