My Unbiased Playoff Seeding Prediction(Homerlicious people enter at your own risk)
11-17-2010, 12:25 AM (This post was last modified: 11-17-2010 12:33 AM by HolyDuckett!.)
RE: My Unbiased Playoff Seeding Prediction(Homerlicious people enter at your own risk)
I think if you are going to be "unbiased," you have to use the past as the predictor of future events. The past is that the Falcons don't lose at home. When they are healthy, they are remarkably consistent at beating the teams they should beat on the road and beating pretty much everyone at home. The Saints have not shown that consistency, losing at home to the Falcons and Browns, and on the road at Arizona!!!???!!!
I don't know if that will hold true, but based on objective criteria, the probability factors favor the Falcons.
The game we are most likely to have trouble with might be the Bucs on the road.
Sure, we could slip up, but the likelihood of that is the same, or less than, the likelihood for everyone.
Given our schedule, and specifically that we have NO ROAD GAMES AGAINST TEAMS IN THE TOP TEN OF THE POWER RANKINGS, I like our chances to win the NFC.
Or, look at it this way: What would the line be on each of the games you provided? YOU may have picked the Saints and Packers to beat the Falcons, but what would Vegas say?
Right now, Vegas would have us favored over the Saints and Packers. The closest game might be the Bucs, although we were eight point favorites a couple of weeks ago. Adjusting for the road, we would still be two point favorites. But factoring that we beat them by six, it could be a pickem . . . right now.
By the same token, I agree with your picks on the Eagles. I think that reflects the likely Vegas line. I am going to inject my bias into the game Sunday against the Giants and suggest that it would be a good game for an upset:
1) The Eagles have less rest coming off a Monday night game
2) It is a short road trip for New York into a similar climate and a familiar setting
3) The Giants came off a loss to the Cowboys. Good teams rarely lose two games in a row, especially when they are emberrased.
4) I like the match up of the Giants' front four against Vick. And, especially after their loss to Dallas, I expect that they will not extend Mr. Vick the same courtesy that he received from the 'Skins and actually TACKLE him.
The Saints schedule looks slightly softer than ours. They won't be favored against the Ravens, but, other than the obvious tough one in the Dome and playing the Bucs in N.O. their opponents are currently in the bottom third of the power rankings. Another bias inection: At the beginning of the season, how tough would that Thanksgiving game in Dallas have looked? What if the talent is still in Big D and the attitude has been turned around? Could that be a difficult game again?
We don't really have any such flukiness in our schedule. I would be concerned about playing the Saints after a long trip to Seattle. But we get the HUGE break of playing Monday night. The extra day offsets the effects of the west coast trip.
If we do what we've been doing, which is taking care of business. Things look good.
One last thing: Have the Falcons gone against their pick status this year? They were underdogs against Philly, and it was a really tight line or they were underdogs in Pittsburgh.
They were dogs in New Orleans.
The Falcons rarely lose when the team is favored. That's gotta be a product of good coaching.
HolyDuckett: The immaculately conceived gay-love-child of HolyMoses and duckettplease. (I'm straight, I'm just the result of their gay love, got it?)