Measuring Dunta Robinson's impact

[atljbo]

Measuring Dunta Robinson's impact
By Pat Yasinskas

When the Atlanta Falcons signed cornerback Dunta Robinson to a six-year contract worth about $57 million during the offseason a lot of eyebrows around the league were raised.

The logic from a lot of people was that Robinson wasn’t worth huge money because he’s not a true shutdown corner. But the Falcons think a little differently than most teams. Let’s just say that Atlanta general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith don’t really believe there is such a thing as a true shutdown corner and, after hearing their logic, I think they’ve got a valid point.

The reasons they signed Robinson went a lot deeper than just signing a good cornerback. Yes, they wanted a No. 1 cornerback and Robinson, at the very least, fits that profile. That’s allowed guys like Brent Grimes and Christopher Owens to be second or third corners, which is what they are. But reflecting even deeper on what Dimitroff and Smith have said about the signing of Robinson, a big part of their logic was that his presence would make the entire defense better.

The Falcons took a lot of criticism for not really doing anything dramatic to improve their pass rush. But they believed guys like John Abraham and Kroy Biermann were close to getting a lot more sacks last year and better coverage in the secondary would allow them to be more productive. The results have been there as Atlanta suddenly has developed a solid pass rush.

Robinson has yet to produce his first interception, but let’s not go saying the Falcons overpaid for him or that he’s a bust. That’s far from the truth. Thanks to ESPN Stats & Information, we’ve got some very concrete and very positive evidence about how much impact Robinson has had on Atlanta’s defense.

The Falcons lead the league in interceptions with 10. They also lead the league in interceptions on the left side of the field with six. That’s as many as the Falcons had on that side of the field all last season.

In fact, Atlanta’s pass defense on the left side of the field has improved dramatically since last year. In 2009, opponents averaged 7.8 yards per attempt on pass plays to the left side of the field and opposing quarterbacks compiled an 85.8 passer rating. This season, the Falcons are allowing only 6.2 yards per attempt on passes to the left side and opposing quarterbacks have a 58.8 passer rating.

[AtlantaFalconPokerPro]

Thanks for posting this. I'd like to have the access Pat has with the ESPN Stats and Info people.

It's tough to properly evaluate a CB from watching the game on TV. This was a good article by Pat.

[RFlagg]

Great post in the comments of the article as well:

Quote:Rocketman6969 (10/14/2010 at 1:54 PM)
My favorite stat is about pass defenses as a whole. Atlanta's Pass D is ranked 19th in YPG at 223. Houston is ranked 32nd with 330.

Last season, the ranked 28th in Pass D with 242 YPG, Houston 18th with 218. Huge difference there.

[bF™]

Good read jbo. Dunta has struggled a little with shorter routes the last two weeks but I think he's been very solid overall.

[AtlantaFalconPokerPro]

(10-14-2010 02:27 PM)bF™ Wrote:  Good read jbo. Dunta has struggled a little with shorter routes the last two weeks but I think he's been very solid overall.

It seems he's playing too far off the line at times. I think he'll continue to get better each week. He missed the PS, so he's only had 4 full games. He definitely has room to get better. That's what's so scary about our team. Were 4-1, and haven't even hit full stride yet.

[Flip Wilson]

I have been very pleased with the Dunta and Grimes Combo. As far as I am concerned, Grimes became an awesome corner half way through last season. Having two corners that can hold their side of the field down should make our pass rush considerably better.

[atljbo]

The thing is... If he doesnt have safety help over the top.... The smart thing is to give some cushion so you wont get burnt for a big play.... ill give up 7 yards any day them give up a big play......

Now on 3rd downs its tricky... If you give that cushion.... You will give up the short yardage 1st down.

[Peyton]

Now do we know if Pat is talking about the left side of the field for the offense or the left side of the field for the defense? I mean, since Pat doesn't usually watch the Falcons games, just want to make sure that he freshed himself up on which side of the field Dunta plays on.

[Peyton]

You know, after thinking about it, I've decided this article is silly.

The concept that Dunta has made the defense tougher is not silly. It is absolutely true. He is playing tough, blowing up screens to his side.

But as far as using these stats to "measure" his impact, man, it's just kind of silly. It does highlight the fact that Pat doesn't actually watch the games though, or he would know how silly it is.

I mean, he seems to suggest that Dunta Robinson is the reason the Falcons have as many INTs on the left side of the field as they did all year last year. Well, let me see here - as far as I can tell, these are the INTs he is talking about.

1. Christopher Owens jumps a slant route against the Cardinals.
2. William Moore catches a deflected pass on a slant route against the Cardinals.
3. Dominique Franks makes an easy pick after taking Robinson's place.
4. Alex Smith throws a ball high and it deflects into Lofton's hands.
5. William Moore sets a trap for Alex Smith and is rewarded with a pick.
6. Kroy Bierman.

Dunta played a definite role in number 2. He had great coverage on the WR when that ball was deflected. But pointing to Dunta as the reason that the Falcons have all these picks is kinda silly, and frankly it's insulting to the other players that are playing so much better this year.

I mean you know what they say - three kinds of lies. Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.

That's pretty funny coming from a statistics minded person like myself I bet lol.

[phocis850]

Peyton, whether or not he is on the left side doesn't mater. We know that Dunta doesn't intercept balls, plays off the line, has been beat on 2 long throws this year, and hasn't really proven that he is a shutdown corner yet. Maybe he isn't a shutdown corner, but Pat is right. We had nobody legitimate of the #1 tag last year and now look what's happening, things are starting to happen. I haven't focused all my attention to him except when the ball is thrown his way. What I have realized is that he enjoys playing zone and plays it well. Also, when he makes a mistake the next play is usually a HUGE hit that he gives to the ball carrier. I see nothing but upside with him and the rest of our D right now.