I can't deny it any longer...this offense is one of the very best.

[Peyton]

Ok, before the season I wrote a big thread that saying this team wasn't going to be a GREAT offensive team because it didn't have enough playmakers. I was wrong. I mean. I still think this team needs more offensive playmakers but this offense is peforming at an extremely high level despite that fact.

Then, after the Steelers game, I started a thread that basically said "accept the team for what it is....pretty solid on offense and defense but not elite at either".

It's a position I somewhat defended up until yesterday. I mean, to me, the offense needed to be a top 5 offense to be elite, and the Falcons simply weren't.

So...there was a conversation about the Falcons defense, and I said to myself "the only reason the Falcons defense is 7th in scoring is because the Falcons offense limits the number of possessions in the game".

Well it occured to me that if the Falcons were limiting the possessions for the other team, they were also limiting the possessions for themselves. I thought it might be fair or me to look at things in a different light.

The first thing I looked at was total offensive scores - offensive TDs + FGs . The top 5:

Philadelphia 56
Atlanta 52
New England 50
San Diego 50
Houston 48
NY Jets 48


Then I looked at non scoring offensive drives - punts + turnovers + missed FG + turnover on downs: Those same 5:

Philadelphia 69
Atlanta 60
New England 56
San Diego 68
Houston 64
New York 86


From this information I calculated how often teams were scoring:

New England 47.17%
Atlanta 46.43%
Philadelphia 44.80%
Houston 42.86%
San Diego 42.37%
New Orleans 41.23%


Getting any kind of score is a psychological plus, but scoring TDs is better. Atlanta kicks FGs more often than anybody, so it was important to calculate the average number of points scored per offensive possession. The top 5:

New England 2.774
San Diego 2.424
Atlanta 2.393
Philly 2.368
Houston 2.357
New Orleans 2.254

To my point about the Falcons offense limiting the number of possessions, here are the 5 teams with the fewest number of possessions in the leauge and the 5 with the most:

Least
New England 106
Green Bay 111
Atlanta 112
Houston 112
New Orleans 114
Jacksonville 114

Most
Detroit 136
Oakland 134
NY Jets 134
Carolina 133
Washington 132

So, after I compiled this all:

The Falcons have the second most scores in the league on the 3rd fewest possessions.
The Falcons have scored more often than any team except New England.
The Falcons have scored more points per possession than any team except New England and San Diego.
Only the Chiefs and the Patriots have turned the ball over fewer times.

So..the Falcons offensive might not be explosive, and I might call them "living on the edge" because they are required to convert sooooo many 3rd downs, but the up until this point of the year they are performing at an elite level. At worst they have been the 4th best offense this year behind the Eagles, but they have arguably been the second best. I can't make an argument that they've been better than New England, who has scored the most offensive TDs in the league in the fewest possessions.

So there you have it.....after looking at all that...I can't deny this offense has been among the "elite" offenses in the NFL.

Let's hope that it continues.

[TAZZ77]

Nice breakdown Peyton. And way to man up. Probably 90% of your assements are from the pesimistic slant. Glad you found a way to look at things from a positive light.

[DriveHomeSafelyAtlantaWins]

Cool Peyton, very insightful. In a nutshell, I think this says: "The Falcons will fool you because it doesn't *look* like their offense is blowing people out. But in fact, it is, just in a subtle way. It does so by keeping the ball for a huge percentage of the time, which actually limits its own scoring, but also limits the other team's scoring. The result is a high winning percentage, but with the illusion that the game was much closer than it really was."

I'd like to hear your thoughts ... do you think that sums it up accurately? What tweaks / changes would you make to that?

(And by the way, I don't agree with the earlier statement that 90% of your assessments are pessimistic. I've seen some realism, a lot of fan-ism, but not the pessimism).

[Peyton]

(12-02-2010 04:35 PM)DriveHomeSafelyAtlantaWins Wrote:  Cool Peyton, very insightful. In a nutshell, I think this says: "The Falcons will fool you because it doesn't *look* like their offense is blowing people out. But in fact, it is, just in a subtle way. It does so by keeping the ball for a huge percentage of the time, which actually limits its own scoring, but also limits the other team's scoring. The result is a high winning percentage, but with the illusion that the game was much closer than it really was."

I'd like to hear your thoughts ... do you think that sums it up accurately? What tweaks / changes would you make to that?

(And by the way, I don't agree with the earlier statement that 90% of your assessments are pessimistic. I've seen some realism, a lot of fan-ism, but not the pessimism).

I have that reputation of being pessimistic sometimes. I'm really not, I just am analytical by nature.

When I studied all these stats, what I ultimately decided is that the offense is covering for this defense big time by holding onto the ball and scoring a high percentage of the time.

But the good news - as Weatherspoon gets healthier, I think the defense can tighten up.

Regardless of how they look doing it, the Falcons have beaten two of the top contenders in the NFC and a top contender from the AFC, there is not really any way to doubt they can hang.

And their going to win home field advantage.....so I am starting to like their chances of taking it to Dallas.

[Jesus]

Interesting stuff.

I like the word methodical that keeps getting passed around. Living on the Edge denotes that they might fail. I never worry on 3rd down no matter the length to the first down. We run a lot of plays and eat a lot of clock I love that aspect of our game. I think its more exciting to watch us wear down a defense then throw a bunch of deep balls in hopes of scoring a lot of points fast. Its like a good chess match or great football.

[putnam6]

I know it's boring and all but I love those time consuming 70-90 yards drives the Falcons are piling up.They have done that against all defenses and it's got to be demoralizing and tiring as hell on a defense. One game at a time plus this week gives the Sucs a chance to adjust to what the Falcons do offensively. Got to love the offense's effectiveness right now though.

[Flip Wilson]

This is certainly one of the best Falcon offenses ever but I'm still not totally happy with it. I think that this O has the potential to be one of the best ever in the NFL.

I don't think it is a lack of play makers that's holding us back. But there are a few things that would make them better as a unit.

1. I think the system that is in place for the O-line is awesome but it doesn't have a very talented group of players. I can't imagine how good this unit could be with a Bill Fralic on the left and a Nate Newton in the running game.

2. Roddy White is the only player that Matt has a real feel for on timing routes. I think the only way this improves is more reps. I think the relationship with the other receivers will improve with time. I think HD is probably as talented a receiver as Roddy was when he got here. Will he put in the effort that Roddy did to get where he is now?

[juraitwaluzka]

Superb analysis. It is precicely this level of detail that it takes to truly understand our offense, which is exactly why most media dumbasses get it wrong but most opposing coaches and players get it right (they watch the film afterall while Trent Dilfer doesnt because he is too busy jerking off to photoshopped pictures of Joe Flacco in a pink speedo).

[redwolfcfc]

That is some real nice work with the numbers Peyton. No doubt our offense is good and I think it is really getting better with every week. Still plenty of room for improvement and luckily our players and coaches know it and they are on it.

[TeamPlayer1]

Peyton, you are back! Fine analysis with unassailable data! Tandy, watch out!

Seriously, Peyton good work.