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Sporkdevil · 02-02-2011, 11:51 PM

(02-02-2011 10:43 PM)g-dawg Wrote: well Spork, we will just agree to disagree....

Pierre Thomas - what is this "often injured" crap? He had NEVER been injured that I recall until this year. If I'm wrong, then I will admit it but please tell me Spork, other than his injury this year, when has Pierre Thomas been injured? I'm not married to Pierre Thomas and I don't have to have him but he is not what you are saying he is...

With regards to DE, what exactly is your solution there Spork? Draft a DE in 1st round? If so, who? Kerrigan, Jordan, Quinn and Bowers will all be gone. Ray Edwards is a decent alternative but will be more expensive thank Kiwanuka. That is about it. Please give me your plan here. When healthy, Kiwanuka is exactly the type of player that we need and rushes the passer better than Edwards. Kiwi had 4 sacks in 3 games in 2010 before hurting his neck. he can rush the passer - no issues there.

With regards to the O-Line and Sam Baker - he(Baker) never looks bad when he plays the worst pass rushing teams in the league - but everytime we go up against the likes of DeMarcus Ware, Will Smith, or any pass rusher with speed, Sam Baker gets absolutely destroyed. Bottom-line, he just cannot stone passrushers and Matt Ryan rarely has a clean pocket to throw from - this must change. The fact that he "looks good for a few weeks" is beside the point. Three years in, Sam Baker "is what he is" and "what he is" is a substandard pass blocker.

I just forgot about Nicholas - he would be an obvious re-sign. Herzlich would be a rotational linebacker and backup(for now).

Well... [rolling up sleeves]

Thomas has been injured a number of times, but I can't say for sure when because he already has a spotty history. He's dealt with some form of injury the past few seasons, as I remember it.

Defensive end can be "solved" a number of ways. However, I believe the only way for it to be solved is to take a DE in the top 3 rounds, and to pick a quality guy in free agency. Unless Biermann is suddenly an 8+ sack guy, we need help. Kiwi had that two years ago, but not since, even with the last two seasons together.

Falcons can make some trades, or take a Charles Johnson or Ray Edwards. Perhaps they can sign a more situational player, acting as a band-aid, and supplement that with the draft. Kerrigan is not certainly gone when we pick, but I'm not sold on him. Quinn... sadly, will be gone. Houston is a possibility, same with Ayers out of UCLA, and Carter outta NC. Hard to say for sure who will be there and who will fit the system, but there are a number of pass rushers available, who I think should go together with a FA DE. Abe will be gone in 1-2 years, and I don't want to bet all my money on the Biermann or Sidbury option.

I'm not sold on Baker either. Yeah, the most elite speed rushers in the league make him look terrible. But is some late first round LT going to perform that much better? Most tackles take at least 3-4 years to develop, and Baker could just need that. I feel like we may as well have pulled chute on Ryan last year because other players were better. Blalock has played well at LG, and shouldn't be replaced by some tackle.

Nicholas, IMHO, should be starting. Spoon should move to WLB, and put Nicholas at SLB. Draft the Boston kid as a back up, by all means. I like him.

I'll post up my own offseason moves, and allow you to criticize them as well.

g-dawg · (This post was last modified: 02-03-2011 09:35 AM by g-dawg.)

(02-02-2011 11:51 PM)Sporkdevil Wrote: Well... [rolling up sleeves]

Thomas has been injured a number of times, but I can't say for sure when because he already has a spotty history. He's dealt with some form of injury the past few seasons, as I remember it.

WELL, I'M CHALLENGING YOU ON THIS SPORK - BECAUSE I DON'T REMEMBER THESE INJURIES IN OTHER YEARS YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT. SO, IF YOU CARE TOO, LET'S HEAR ABOUT THEM.

Defensive end can be "solved" a number of ways. However, I believe the only way for it to be solved is to take a DE in the top 3 rounds, and to pick a quality guy in free agency. Unless Biermann is suddenly an 8+ sack guy, we need help. Kiwi had that two years ago, but not since, even with the last two seasons together.

KIWI HAD 4 SACKS THIS YEAR IN THE 3 GAMES HE PLAYED BEFORE HE WENT ON THE IR. NY GIANTS HAVE THE DEEPEST AND MOST TALENTED DE'S IN THE ENTIRE NFL SO KIWI WAS NOT GETTING A LOT OF SNAPS WITH OSI AND JUSTIN TUCK AHEAD OF HIM - SO, YOU HAVE TO TAKE THAT INTO ACCOUNT WHICH YOU ARE NOT. ALSO THIS YEAR, ITS HARD TO SACK THE QB FROM THE INJURED RESERVE LIST

Falcons can make some trades, or take a Charles Johnson or Ray Edwards.
EDWARDS IS A POSSIBILITY AS I THINK HE WILL HIT THE OPEN MARKET - BUT HE WILL COST MORE - POSSIBILY $1-2 MILLION/YEAR MORE. CHARLES JOHNSON WILL NEVER SEE THE LIGHT OF DAY OF FREE AGENCY - PANTHERS ARE GONNA TIE HIM UP WITH SOME TYPE OF TAG OR RE-SIGN HIM.

Perhaps they can sign a more situational player, acting as a band-aid, and supplement that with the draft. Kerrigan is not certainly gone when we pick, but I'm not sold on him. Quinn... sadly, will be gone. Houston is a possibility, same with Ayers out of UCLA, and Carter outta NC. Hard to say for sure who will be there and who will fit the system, but there are a number of pass rushers available, who I think should go together with a FA DE. Abe will be gone in 1-2 years, and I don't want to bet all my money on the Biermann or Sidbury option.
I'M NOT REALLY HEARING YOU OFFERING ANY LEGIT SOLUTIONS FOR THE FALCONS BIGGEST NEEDS IN YOUR COMMENTS ABOVE.

I'm not sold on Baker either. Yeah, the most elite speed rushers in the league make him look terrible. But is some late first round LT going to perform that much better?
YES, I THINK SHERROD WOULD BE MUCH BETTER. HE IS A VERY, VERY GOOD PASS BLOCKER - HE'S MUCH BETTER PASS BLOCKER THAN BAKER AND IS A NATURAL THERE. SHERROD IS NOT A MAULER IN THE RUN GAME OR HIS STOCK WOULD BE HIGHER. I WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF SHERROD GOES 5-10 SPOTS EARLIER THAN FALCONS #27 PICK ANYWAY. BUT TO ANSWER YOU "YES" SHERROD WOULD BE A HUGE UPGRADE OVER BAKER - I HAVE NO DOUBT ABOUT THAT AND HE WOULD BE BETTER FROM DAY #1.

Most tackles take at least 3-4 years to develop, and Baker could just need that. I feel like we may as well have pulled chute on Ryan last year because other players were better. Blalock has played well at LG, and shouldn't be replaced by some tackle.
OK, WE ARE ALREADY GOING TO HAVE TO PAY TYSON CLABO A GOOD BIT OF MONEY TO RETAIN HIM - AND I'M OK WITH THAT AND I THINK YOU ARE ADVOCATING THIS AS WELL. DAHL/BLALOCK ARE BOTH GOING TO GET MULTI-YEAR DEALS AT PROBABLY $4-$5 MIL/PER. DO YOU REALLY WANT TO SINK FALCONS CAP MONEY INTO EITHER ONE OF THOSE GUYS WHEN THEY ARE NOTHING MORE THAN AVERAGE TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN AVERAGE OFFENSIVE GUARDS IN THIS LEAGUE? WHEN I THINK ABOUT THE OFFENSIVE GUARDS WE HAVE IN RESERVE - JOHNSON/HAWLEY/VALDEZ - AND THE FACT THAT BAKER PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE BEEN A GUARD IN THE FIRST PLACE - THIS MAKES IT HARD FOR ME TO JUSTIFY PAYING EITHER BLALOCK OR DAHL - STEEP PRICE FOR "CONTINUITY"........BESIDES, ALL THE GUYS COMING IN HAVE BEEN IN FALCONS SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST 1 YEAR NOW.

Nicholas, IMHO, should be starting. Spoon should move to WLB, and put Nicholas at SLB. Draft the Boston kid as a back up, by all means. I like him.
I NEVER DISAGEED WITH THIS FROM OUTSET - JUST FORGOT TO COMMENT ON NICHOLAS AT ALL IN ORIGINAL POST - HAVE SINCE ADDED - THANKS FOR POINTING THIS OUT. I AGREE THAT NICHOLAS IS A STARTER ALONG WITH WEATHERSPOON AND LOFTON. PRIMARY BACK-UPS WOULD BE HERZLICH, PETERSON AND WIRE. WE ARE LOADED AT LINEBACKER....

I'll post up my own offseason moves, and allow you to criticize them as well. I DON'T MIND THE CRITICISM SPORK - ITS FINE, REALLY IT IS. THIS LEADS TO DEBATE AND MAKES ME CHALLENGE MY OWN THOUGHTS - WHICH IS A GOOD THING. WE ALL WANT THE SAME THING - FOR OUR TEAM TO GET BETTER

ANSWERS/COMMENTS ABOVE TO YOURS IN ALL CAPS...

ggp · 02-03-2011, 11:12 AM

(02-02-2011 11:00 PM)g-dawg Wrote: Romeus Stats prior to 2010

2007: 11.5 sacks
2008: 15.5 sacks
2009: 11.5 sacks

sounds fairly consistent to me, ggp....

Not sure about those stats. This is from CBS Sports:

Romeus went from a basketball star at Coral Glades High School in Florida to a one-year wonder as a recruit to an all-conference performer in the Big East heading into his senior season. Injuries derailed his final year, leading NFL teams to wonder how much of an investment they should make in his potential as a play-making pass rusher.

After redshirting in 2006 to learn the game -- he added 20-plus pounds of weight on a basketball-player body -- Romeus contributed immediately. He received multiple Freshman All-American honors with 41 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss and four sacks in 12 games (no starts), getting national recognition for helping Pitt upset highly-rated West Virginia in his first Backyard Brawl. Romeus continued to impress as a sophomore, garnering second-team All-Big East consideration after starting 13 games, accumulating 51 tackles, 15.5 for loss, and 7.5 sacks. He also won the Sun Bowl's Most Valuable Lineman award with two sacks against Oregon State. In 2009, he made slightly fewer big plays (42 tackles, 11.5 for loss, eight sacks, three forced fumbles) but still landed on the coaches' all-conference second team.

Romeus missed most of 2010 preseason practices with back spasms, had family issues that caused him to miss the second game of the year, then decided to undergo surgery to repair his lower back. He returned mid-year, but suffered a torn ACL in his right knee in his first game back against Connecticut. Romeus returned to school for the 2010 season after failing to receive a first-round grade from the NFL Advisory Committee prior to the 2010 draft, and now two major injuries dropped his stock even further. He'll need strong offseason workouts to earn a third- or fourth-round selection in April.

According to this source, Romeus' stats are as follows:
2006 Red shirted
2007 4 Sacks
2008 7.5 Sacks
2009 8 Sacks
2010 Out with injury.

It would be useful to know how well he performed against solid OT's. I wonder whether he came across many in the Big East.

He has already had spine and ACL surgeries. I know that he is still a prominent name, but I wonder if he is worth the risk.

ggp · 02-03-2011, 11:17 AM

We would be extremely lucky to draft Sherrod. His pass blocking skills are the best in this draft. As you mentioned, the knock on him is his lack of power in run blocking.

If we are lucky enough to draft Sherrod, I don't think that TD will be willing to outbid Jerry Jones for Clabo. Baker goes to RT.

TheDirtyWord · (This post was last modified: 02-03-2011 11:21 AM by TheDirtyWord.)

I think we generally agree on the FA's we would keep versus jettison. I had forgotten about Nicholas in my own review and I would look to re-sign him as well although, I may look to RFA him versus sign him long term. While he and Blalock were drafted in the same year, Blalock has essentially been a starter his whole career. Nicholas has only ascended recently to being a consistent starter. Also, the Falcons flexibility in dealing with his situation when his child was sick should allow them to say to Nicholas with confidence that, his turn will come if his performance maintains (or improves), but that time is 2012.

As for your FA spree...

#1 - Those are 3 fairly high profile FA's. The Falcons MO under Dimitrofff has been a 1 major FA or trade limit (i.e; Turner, Gonzo, Robinson). So I see it as unlikely that we would dole out $33M in guaranteed money to 3 players.

#2 - Aside from Jones, who I do like and I think would be a solid fit, I can't jump on board with Kiwi and esepcially Thomas. That said, I think Jones isn't going to come that cheap when you consider that Nate Washington signed a 6 year $27.5M deal two years ago and he doesn't profile nearly as well as Jones IMO. I think Jones winds up getting a 6 year $33M type deal with a close to $10M SB.

#3 - Kiwi - so I decided to compare Biermann and Kiwi in terms of their last two seasons. First off Kiwi, when playing DE, has largely played the RE position...Biermann largely plays LE.

But going deeper, and using PFF, which still can be questioned, but at the same time tracks defensive stats on a defensive level, this is Biermann's and Kiwi's production the last two seasons.

Biermann - 1169 snaps; 37/game

8 sacks
18 QB hits
53 QB pressures

Kiwanuka - 902 snaps; 45/game

7 sacks
14 QB hits
28 QB pressures

Are we saying that Kiwi is so much better than Biermann that we woulod gamble on his being healthy with a long term deal so he could switch positions and maybe produce a little more than what Biermann has produced? Plus, if I'm Kiwanuka...am I taking a compromised long term deal (which might be the only time he fits FA in his prime) from a franchise I have no history or chemistry with? I just don't think the deal is good from either side.

And my issues with the Thomas signing...

#1 - Whatever was wrong with his ankle this year, it required surgery. The Saints didn't seem to a do a good job of diagnosing whatever it was that ailed him OR they were not satisfied with his toughness. Either way, those are both red flags because ankles/feet should be pretty cut and dry.

#2 - The contract you are offering Thomas will pay him more over the next 3 years than Turner. I don't know where this sudden mass desire to diminish Turner's role comes from. I just know that in his 3 seasons with us, he has 1 First Team All-Pro Selection, 1 Second Team All-Pro Selection...and he might have been having his best season the year he didn't make either of those teams due to injury.

Does he not produce in the passing game...? Yes. So he's a two down RB...but one of the best in the business. So find a 3rd down guy who you don't pay more money to. But if I'm Michael Turner...and I see you give Pierre Thomas, a guy with 411 career carries a better contract than the one I've got after I've been your bellcow for 3 years...I have issues.

As for your draft...can't find fault with any other selection other than Herzlich. While you know I like Rudolph, you are addressing an area of need early, but I do believe Rudolph is a significantly better prospect. Back to Herzlich, if you are signing Nicholas to a 3 year deal...then your starting LB's are set for the next 3 years, no? Spoon/Lofton/Nicholas. Where does Herzlich fit?

Romeus is not a bad gamble in Round 5, but the player you are referring to is the one that hadn't yet had back or reconstructive knee surgery.

caver50 · 02-03-2011, 11:31 AM

Well thought out Dawg, I agree with some and some I don't. Here we go. We must be careful in FA not to make any lateral moves. Although I do think that Thomas is an improvement over Snelling, I'am just not sure there is enough improvement to warrant the FA dollars it would cost. I believe we can get this guy through the draft
in the 2nd or 3rd round and save those bucks for DE and CB. If Kiwi is healthy, I say go after him and the Best CB that is available in FA.

I don't believe we could get a LT in FA, so LT would be my #1 pick via the draft. We should keep Baker and use him at Guard or maybe RT and I'am not opposed
to trading up to get top tallent.

Man I missed Norwood, but now we need his replacement. We need that additional threat. It's my opinion that Turner would benifit from this move.

As for reciever, I don't know what to do right now, but I would like to see an upgrade over Jenkins. I'll just hold onto those cards for a while and see what turns up.

g-dawg · 02-03-2011, 02:53 PM

(02-03-2011 11:12 AM)ggp Wrote: Not sure about those stats. This is from CBS Sports:

Romeus went from a basketball star at Coral Glades High School in Florida to a one-year wonder as a recruit to an all-conference performer in the Big East heading into his senior season. Injuries derailed his final year, leading NFL teams to wonder how much of an investment they should make in his potential as a play-making pass rusher.

After redshirting in 2006 to learn the game -- he added 20-plus pounds of weight on a basketball-player body -- Romeus contributed immediately. He received multiple Freshman All-American honors with 41 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss and four sacks in 12 games (no starts), getting national recognition for helping Pitt upset highly-rated West Virginia in his first Backyard Brawl. Romeus continued to impress as a sophomore, garnering second-team All-Big East consideration after starting 13 games, accumulating 51 tackles, 15.5 for loss, and 7.5 sacks. He also won the Sun Bowl's Most Valuable Lineman award with two sacks against Oregon State. In 2009, he made slightly fewer big plays (42 tackles, 11.5 for loss, eight sacks, three forced fumbles) but still landed on the coaches' all-conference second team.

Romeus missed most of 2010 preseason practices with back spasms, had family issues that caused him to miss the second game of the year, then decided to undergo surgery to repair his lower back. He returned mid-year, but suffered a torn ACL in his right knee in his first game back against Connecticut. Romeus returned to school for the 2010 season after failing to receive a first-round grade from the NFL Advisory Committee prior to the 2010 draft, and now two major injuries dropped his stock even further. He'll need strong offseason workouts to earn a third- or fourth-round selection in April.

According to this source, Romeus' stats are as follows:
2006 Red shirted
2007 4 Sacks
2008 7.5 Sacks
2009 8 Sacks
2010 Out with injury.

It would be useful to know how well he performed against solid OT's. I wonder whether he came across many in the Big East.

He has already had spine and ACL surgeries. I know that he is still a prominent name, but I wonder if he is worth the risk.

ggp, I apologize about the stats. I got them from Scott Wright on NFLDraftCountdown - just went to ESPN and found different stats. Just went back and looked at this - the stats I quote above were TFL's (Tackles for Loss) and those were right - however I represented them as sacks - which was wrong - sorry about that - my mistake. He had 4.5sacks(2007), 7.5sacks(2008) and 8.5sacks(2009) before giving way to injuries in 2010. However I will stand by that I think he would be a good pick from 4th round on.......sorry again for the mistake - I can promise it was not intentional.

g-dawg · 02-03-2011, 03:16 PM

DirtyWord,

thanks for the detailed analysis - you don't do anything half-assed!!! I like that.

I like how you compared Bierrman to Kiwi but you kind of gloss over/not mentioning in that analysis that Bierrman had 267 more snaps to produce the similiar results - 267 snaps is the equivalent of 7+ games. That is a LOT!!! So, I do find fault with your comparison here even though I understand that you were approaching the subject with some logic - just don't think its a bullet-proof analysis there.

I'm not totally "married" to getting Pierre Thomas - I think he would be a GREAT fit with Falcons/Turner but if we did not get Pierre, I would be OK with it. I think Pierre Thomas was criminally underused in New Orleans during his tenure there and he could have posted much, much bigger numbers. To say that the Saints offense is "pass-happy" is a huge understatement. I think Pierre Thomas is a much bigger upgrade over Snelling than most of you guys do but I want try to talk you guys to my side - we will just agree to disagree. I could easily be satisfied with grabbing a guy like Derrick Locke, RB-Kentucky in 4th round - he's faster and younger than Pierre but he won't be as multiple of a threat.

Regarding draft, "yes" I think I put together an excellent draft there and you weren't too harsh on me in that respect - thanks. Falcons would pull a major "coup" if they could get Sherrod at #27 - the more I think about it, the more likely it is this guy will be long gone - but I'm sticking w/ it for now just like we all did 2 years ago when everybody wanted BJ Raji at #24 when he ended up going like #10 overall to Green Bay - oh well!!!

As far as Herzlich goes, I understand your logic - "why draft an OLB in 3rd round when we have our starters in place?(Lofton/Nicholas/Weatherspoon)" I just think that its a value pick and you need more than 3 starters - Herzlich could probably play at least two of the LB positions and he is a "straight nasty" player with major, major intangibles. He would be worth the pick.

TheDirtyWord · (This post was last modified: 02-03-2011 04:55 PM by TheDirtyWord.)

(02-03-2011 03:16 PM)g-dawg Wrote: DirtyWord,

thanks for the detailed analysis - you don't do anything half-assed!!! I like that.

I like how you compared Bierrman to Kiwi but you kind of gloss over/not mentioning in that analysis that Bierrman had 267 more snaps to produce the similiar results - 267 snaps is the equivalent of 7+ games. That is a LOT!!! So, I do find fault with your comparison here even though I understand that you were approaching the subject with some logic - just don't think its a bullet-proof analysis there.

Also, you are neglecting to include that RE is a better 'sack' position than LE because the RE attacks the QB's blind side. Listen, I'm not here to say that Kiwanuka isn't as good as Biermann. Truth be told, he's a first round talent who has produced nicely at the NFL level. But Biermann is on the hook for his original contract number in 2011 and can probably be RFA'ed in 2012 (assuming current labor conditions apply). If Biermann is 80% of the player Kiwanuka is...are we really feeling the Kiwi is the answer at $6M+ year? Let's just say I'm surprised to see people writing off Biermann so quickly. Personally, I think Biermann is on the cusp. He had to go from a situational rusher oin 2009, to unquestioned starter in 2010. That's a different role...he doesn't come in fresh off the bench on passing down like he once did. He's got to carry his weight as an all-around player. Yet he still posted very good QB pressure numbers. I (still) think he's on the cusp.

Quote:I'm not totally "married" to getting Pierre Thomas - I think he would be a GREAT fit with Falcons/Turner but if we did not get Pierre, I would be OK with it. I think Pierre Thomas was criminally underused in New Orleans during his tenure there and he could have posted much, much bigger numbers. To say that the Saints offense is "pass-happy" is a huge understatement. I think Pierre Thomas is a much bigger upgrade over Snelling than most of you guys do but I want try to talk you guys to my side - we will just agree to disagree. I could easily be satisfied with grabbing a guy like Derrick Locke, RB-Kentucky in 4th round - he's faster and younger than Pierre but he won't be as multiple of a threat.

I simply think it comes down to finances. I don't think anyone would debate that when at peak health, Thomas is a far superior back to Snelling. Snelling is what he is...a back-up RB who can spot start. What he isn't though is a guy who requires the defense to bring different personnel packages and schemes into the game when he walks on the field. Norwood did do that, and if you didn't, he could make you pay with the big play. I like Rodgers better, but Locke seems like a player in this mold.

Quote:As far as Herzlich goes, I understand your logic - "why draft an OLB in 3rd round when we have our starters in place?(Lofton/Nicholas/Weatherspoon)" I just think that its a value pick and you need more than 3 starters - Herzlich could probably play at least two of the LB positions and he is a "straight nasty" player with major, major intangibles. He would be worth the pick.

Herzlich is a great story no doubt...and if he was the pick at #91...I would back it because I trust Dimitroff. I simply question the need.

ggp · 02-03-2011, 05:02 PM

(02-03-2011 02:53 PM)g-dawg Wrote: ggp, I apologize about the stats. I got them from Scott Wright on NFLDraftCountdown - just went to ESPN and found different stats. Just went back and looked at this - the stats I quote above were TFL's (Tackles for Loss) and those were right - however I represented them as sacks - which was wrong - sorry about that - my mistake. He had 4.5sacks(2007), 7.5sacks(2008) and 8.5sacks(2009) before giving way to injuries in 2010. However I will stand by that I think he would be a good pick from 4th round on.......sorry again for the mistake - I can promise it was not intentional.

G-Dawg,

You are one of the most reputable posters I have read. No sweat.