Falcons We really do need a strong and full draft this year.
01-15-2013, 03:40 PM
RE: We really do need a strong and full draft this year.
RB: First of all, let me preface this with what type of RB I believe we need/don't need. We don't need a one-cut downhill 240lb between the tackles non-receiving bruiser. That kind of back makes us predictable as hell when he comes in. I want 2 RB's and a FB who the other team has no idea if they are running inside, running outside, receiving over the middle, receiving in the flats, or receiving a screen. They have to be shifty with 1-3 cuts and can make people miss.
Ewing is a great receiving FB and lead blocker and even a very good runner. If he's in there, you don't know if he's going to run, block, or catch. It really sucks that he got hurt. That dude would have created a dynamic for us that we didn't have this year. We tried with Polite, but dude just couldn't catch or run the ball worth a shit. And Cox is simply a great lead blocker, but that makes us predictable because when he's in, you know exactly what's coming and that's bad.
Quizz is a breed of his own and incredibly under-estimated. He can be a 3-down back and we could probably run him 30 carries a game and he still wouldn't run out of energy. But we shouldn't do that because of his one single downside... speed. He is not a homerun threat. Safeties and LB's can crowd the box slightly more when he's in because they KNOW for a fact, that even if he does break one into the second or even third layer, someone can run him down and catch him before he scores. That said, he is dynamic when on the short side of the 50 and in the red zone. And the guy just doesn't fumble the ball. He is money when we are ahead and just need to pound the rock wearing them down and running out the clock. Plus, you have no idea if he will run inside, outside, screen, or even pass(like a wheel route or even shift into the slot).
So, what we DO NEED is a speed back who is essentially a faster Quizz. Speed speed speed, though. Someone who can hit the first hole before it closes and be into the second layer making 2-3 cuts and fake defenders out of their jocks. Someone who can speed around the edge and just blow past the angles, beat arm tackles, and throw some stiff arms on top of that. Someone who is a homerun threat every time they touch the ball. And you have no idea if they are running or catching.
Reggie Bush in FA would be my very first choice here. But Miami really wants him back and I think he too likes Miami enough to stay. BUT... BUT... with the possibility of going to a top tier team with an incredible locker room who absolutely has the better potential to go to a SB every year for the next 5+ years, we could be attractive enough for just about any player we want in the league to forget everything else and come here. So there's a chance, but unlikely.
After that, there's literally no other FA RB worth a shit that I would want. Not Shonn Green, Felix Jones, Woodhead, Mendenhall, Benson, Hillis... none of them
So in the draft, the guys who fit the description of what I believe we need and in this order:
1. RB Oregon, Kenjon Barner - 5'11 195lbs, 4.30 speed, 279 att, 1767 yards, 6.3 ypc, 21 rush TD's, 20 recs, 256 rec yards, 2 rec TD's - projected for late second round to early third.
2. RB NCarolina, Giovani Bernard - 5'10 205lbs, 4.45 speed, 184 att, 1228 yards, 6.6 ypc, 12 TD's, 47 recs, 490 rec yards, 5 TD's - projected for late first to mid second.
3. RB UCLA, Johnathan Franklin - 5'11 195lbs, 4.45 speed, 282 att, 1734 yards, 6.2 ypc, 13 TD's, 33 recs, 323 rec yards, 2 TD's - projected for late second round to late third.
4. RB Bama, Eddie Lacy - 5'10 220lbs, 4.50 speed, 204 att, 1322 yards, 6.5 ypc, 17 TD's, 22 recs, 189 rec yards, 2 TD's - projected for late first round to mid second.
5. RB Wisc, Montee Ball - 5'11 215lbs, 4.50 speed, 356 att, 1830 yards, 5.2 ypc, 22 TD's, 10 recs, 72 rec yards, 0 rec TD's - projected for mid first to early second.
My problem with Montee Ball is he's not really a speed guy and really not a pass catching RB, so I'm afraid he makes the offense predictable when he's in. But damn can he run the ball. He can make multiple cuts to make defenders miss and/or just run over folks if he wants. The guy finds the endzone.
My only problem with Kenjon Barner is he never stays in to help block so it's a weakness for him. But just like Quizz learned to do it (he never did in college either), I'm sure we could coach him up as well. Barner is the perfect guy for our offense IMO. And I think we can get him with our second round pick.
DL: We need a tall fast guy with long ass arms here. No 6'3 275 with T-Rex arms and runs a 5.0. We need 6'5 265 gorilla arms and runs a 4.6. Unfortunately, Cliff Avril is the only DE worth a shit in this year's FA, but he's going to be asking for like $12M+/year and we're just not going to pay that. Every other FA DE that's any good is over age 33 and I don't see us going that route. I think we draft one with our first pick here and I REALLY hope it's Montgomery.
1. DE LSU, Sam Montgomery - 6'5 260lbs, 4.59 speed, 37 tackles, 13 TFL's, 8 sacks, 3 FF's. - projected for late first round to early second.
2. DE Texas, Alex Okafor - 6'4 265lbs, 4.70 speed, 61 tackles, 17 TFL's, 12.5 sacks, 4 FF's - projected for late first round to early second.
3. DE BYU, Ezekiel Ansah - 6'5 270 lbs, 4.70 speed, 62 tackles, 13 TFL's, 5 sacks, 1 FF - projected for mid second round to mid third.
As for DT, I just don't see us going after anybody. There's 3 really good 4-3 DT's, but I honestly believe they will all be gone by the time we pick. And I don't see us moving up for something like that when DE and RB are greater needs. As I stated earlier, we're set with Babs, Peters, Jerry, Walker, and Robertson. And we're not going to draft a massive 330+ lb traditional NT. Just no.
CB: We're just not going to dump a lot of money on an FA here. We just wasted $10M on Grimes. Moore, Hope, Grimes, Owens, McClain, and Franks are all FA's this off-season. We will pay Moore a big contract and do what it takes to keep McClain and Owens. I'm sure we'll offer Grimes something, but the chances of him taking it are slim IMO. Franks may not even get an offer to stay. He's not bad, he's just not very good and has no signs that he might improve. Time to cut his bait. Hope will probably be re-signed on the cheap. We had a very good pass defense this year with regards to takeaways and key pass defenses without Grimes. McClain earned a starting spot at nickle. But we need depth to go along with Owens and Thompson if Grimes and Franks are gone. If Grimes stays, however, CB may be a late round pick. If Grimes goes, it could be as high as 3rd round.
I'll be honest, I hate trying to pick a 3rd to late round CB prospect. It's freaking impossible to know who's going to end up being good in the pros once you're past the top 2 or 3 on the board. I would love to get a 6' 200 guy who runs a 4.4 or better and has long arms and good hands, but LOL, find a guy like that who isn't a WR and still plays CB and isn't a first round pick. IMO, the best chance to get lucky here is go with a guy who has raw gifts of good size and speed and just hope you can coach him up to something special. Or, go with a super fast guy who is also a very good kick returner and coach him up at CB. At least then you'll get something out of him immediately. Guys who might fit that description and be available in later rounds:
1. CB/KR Hawaii, Mike Edwards - 5'10 180, 4.3 speed, 43 tackles, 5 TFL's, 2 ints, 15 breakups, 40 KR's, 1215 yards, 30.3 ypr, 3 KR TD's - projected for late 4th to early 6th round.
2. CB/KR OK St., Justin Gilbert - 6' 195, 4.4 speed, 63 tackles, 3 TFL's, 0 ints, 9 breakups, 32 KR's, 827 yards, 26 ypr, 2 KR TD's - projected for late 4th to early 6th round.
3. CB Washington, Desmond Trufant - 6' 185lbs, 4.4 speed, 36 tackles, 5 TFL's, 2 ints, 8 breakups, 1 sack - projected for mid third round to mid fourth.
4. CB Conn, Blidi Wreh-Wilson - 6'1 190, 4.4 speed, 46 tackles, 7 TFL's, 2 ints, 9 breakups, 1 sack - projected for early fourth to mid fifth.
5. CB Louisville, Adrian Bushell - 5'11 190, 4.4 speed, 61 tackles, 2 TFL's, 2 ints, 13 breakups, good kick returner - projected for 4th or 5th rounds.
And there's also guys like Sanders Commings & Brandon Smith from UGA who I know would be decent projects. Bennett Jackson from ND is ok. Leon McFadden from San Diego St. Micah Hyde from Iowa. Rod Sweeting from GA Tech.... All these guys would likely be practice squad projects, but they have potential to develop IMO. Personally I would go with Mike Edwards in the 5th round and give us a bona fide KR homerun threat who can also play depth at CB and a fast damn gunner on kickoffs.
TE: I already discussed this earlier. Hang our hat on Coffman now that he's healthy and had a year under TG. Re-sign Palmer as he's a FA. And if Lutzenkerchin is available still in the late 4th round, or maybe even take our chances waiting until late 5th, then definitely grab him. If not for his hip injury (which is fixed and completely resolved), he would be a top 3 TE in this year's draft. But because he didn't play in 2012, he's a gem in late rounds.