Falcons: Play-offs? Play-offs?

[RockHoward]

Sitting at 6-0 after week 6 of the season we can state the following:

Going forward if the Falcons win 7 of 10 games then they are guaranteed a play-off spot.

If the Falcons win 8 of 10 then they are guaranteed at least a #2 seed meaning a first week bye and a home game in the play-offs.

The Falcons still need to run the table to guarantee a #1 seed.

Meanwhile if the Panthers or the Saints should happen to win all of their remaining games, they are still not guaranteed a 2012 play-off spot! They do not control their own destiny!

[AsylumGuido]

I would feel pretty confident that IF the Saints end up at 12-4 that they would stand a fairly decent shot of squeaking into the playoff mix and they stand a FAR greater shot of pulling that off than does Carolina.

[Dale4Saul2Red0]

^ If the Saints lose this week are you going to shut the fuck up about the playoffs? Jesus christ worry about winning a few football games first.

[RockHoward]

(10-18-2012 06:17 PM)AsylumGuido Wrote:  I would feel pretty confident that IF the Saints end up at 12-4 that they would stand a fairly decent shot of squeaking into the playoff mix and they stand a FAR greater shot of pulling that off than does Carolina.

Meanwhile back in the real world, the chances that Saints make the play-offs in 2012 are less than 1% while the Falcons chances of doing likewise are 97%.

If you insist on the fantasy world, then consider that the Falcons are the only team in the NFL that could theoretically lose every remaining regular season game and still make the play-offs.

My hope is that the Falcons locks up the Division with a victory on November 29th, but there is a very real chance they could clinch the spot before that game.

[RockHoward]

(10-18-2012 06:17 PM)AsylumGuido Wrote:  I would feel pretty confident that IF the Saints end up at 12-4 that they would stand a fairly decent shot of squeaking into the playoff mix and they stand a FAR greater shot of pulling that off than does Carolina.

Oh really? Based on calculations using relative team strength played out over the remaining schedule it appears that the Panthers at almost 4% are four times more likely to snag a play-off spot than the Saints. I like the Panthers chances in week 7 hosting the Cowboys a hair more than the Saints visiting the Bucs so let's start with that, eh?

[AsylumGuido]

(10-18-2012 06:46 PM)RockHoward Wrote:  Oh really? Based on calculations using relative team strength played out over the remaining schedule it appears that the Panthers at almost 4% are four times more likely to snag a play-off spot than the Saints. I like the Panthers chances in week 7 hosting the Cowboys a hair more than the Saints visiting the Bucs so let's start with that, eh?

Then I see that you have no concept of relative strength based upon actual roster rather than incoming record. The Bucs can't touch the Saints based upon talent overall.

Cam Newton is a drain that will suck any chance that the Panthers have of ever succeeding spiraling down. As crappy as the Cowboy's have been, they would have to totally fold to drop this game to the Kittens.

[AsylumGuido]

(10-18-2012 06:25 PM)RockHoward Wrote:  Meanwhile back in the real world, the chances that Saints make the play-offs in 2012 are less than 1% while the Falcons chances of doing likewise are 97%.

If you insist on the fantasy world, then consider that the Falcons are the only team in the NFL that could theoretically lose every remaining regular season game and still make the play-offs.

My hope is that the Falcons locks up the Division with a victory on November 29th, but there is a very real chance they could clinch the spot before that game.

Or, as you pointed out, there is the chance that they could lose every remaining game and ...

Life's a bitch and then you go yet another year without winning it all.

[pauliwood]

Let's be honest, we could shit the bed and go .500 the rest of the season. That would leave us at 11-5 and most likely division champs, worst case wild card.

I don't think we will, but we do have quite a cushion at this point.

[RockHoward]

(10-18-2012 07:46 PM)AsylumGuido Wrote:  Life's a bitch and then you go yet another year without winning it all.

So as this season progresses you are quickly being reduced to only finding solace in the fervent hope that the Falcons won't win the Super Bowl. How pathetic. But at least you are realistic enough to concede that the Falcons are a virtual lock for the play-offs at this point in time while the Saints are an extreme long shot at best.

Meanwhile relative team strength projections show that the chance of the Falcons getting the #1 seed in the play-offs currently stands at 55%. Yep. The Falcons have a better shot at the #1 seed than all of the other NFC teams combined.

[phocis850]

(10-19-2012 01:15 AM)pauliwood Wrote:  Let's be honest, we could shit the bed and go .500 the rest of the season. That would leave us at 11-5 and most likely division champs, worst case wild card.

I don't think we will, but we do have quite a cushion at this point.

Wildcard? Have you seen the teams in our division?