Another Big Game this Sunday - beating Tampa key to winning NFC South/1st rd bye

[g-dawg]

Looking at remaining schedule:

@ Tampa
@ Carolina
@ Seattle
vs. New Orleans
vs. Carolina

Falcons record: (9-2)
Saints record: (8-3)

While "anything can happen" in the NFL, I do not forsee Falcons(#1) losing to the Panthers(#32) in either of those games so that gets us to 11 wins right there. Certainly the Falcons could lose a tough cross-country road game to the Seattle Seahawks but we really should win that game as well. I also think that if Saints beat Falcons that they could run the table - only other hard game is @ Ravens but hey - give Saints their due - they could win that game.....they definitely could win it.

Its a "coin-flip" on whether we beat the Saints or not - so, for the sake of "worst-case scenario" let's assume we lose to the Saints - its not going to happen but let's give these Saints trolls something to be cheery about. Falcons would have the better division record and common opponents so we would win the tie-breaker with Saints if we both finish at 13-3 and splitting the "head-to-head" matchups.

If Falcons can win this Tampa game - which is no gimme - not by a longshot then Falcons really assume control of the NFC South, assume control of 1st round bye and assume control of possible home-field advantage throughout playoffs.

I realize that if "ifs and buts were candy and nuts your aunt would be your uncle" but I really believe the two games we could lose on remaining schedule are Tampa/Saints games. If we can just "split" those games and win the rest - then its over and Falcons accomplish everything they could want in regular season including home-field throughout.

I wish Falcons would just blow-out the Bucs but really - we all know that won't happen. Its going to come down to the end..........Matty on the drive and Matt on the field goal.........

get ready for the white-knuckle ride on Sunday down in Tampa.

[TonyGraziani]

If the Saints beat us and run the table, wouldn't they be 5-1 in the division as well?

[g-dawg]

(11-30-2010 12:32 PM)TonyGraziani Wrote:  If the Saints beat us and run the table, wouldn't they be 5-1 in the division as well?

I have read this in two places - one from a Saints source - that says we have the tiebreaker advantage over them:

1) head-to-head (tie)
2) conference record (I guess that would be a tie)
3) common opponents (I think Falcons win this one)

I will try and find the article and post for you....

[TonyGraziani]

(11-30-2010 12:37 PM)g-dawg Wrote:  I have read this in two places - one from a Saints source - that says we have the tiebreaker advantage over them:

1) head-to-head (tie)
2) conference record (I guess that would be a tie)
3) common opponents (I think Falcons win this one)

I will try and find the article and post for you....

Ah, gotcha. The 3 common opponents I can think of off the top of my head at this point are PITT, ARI, and CLE. We are 2-1 to their 1-2 off of those alone

EDIT: plus SF its 3-1 to 2-2. They still have games with Cincy, STL, and BAL, while we still play SEA. If we both win out, then we only have 1 loss to their 2.

[nobkowski]

it sure would be nice to have such an advantage that we could
play Redman, Snelling, Weems, & Palmer as starters in the last panties game.

Maybe Wire, Anderson, Walker, Coleman & Owens as starters on defense also.
Hell, we could probably still win. LOL

[g-dawg]

(11-30-2010 12:32 PM)TonyGraziani Wrote:  If the Saints beat us and run the table, wouldn't they be 5-1 in the division as well?

NOLA.com - Saints need wins to keep pace w/ Falcons

New Orleans Saints need wins to keep pace with the Atlanta Falcons
Published: Tuesday, November 30, 2010, 9:34 AM
Mike Triplett, The Times-Picayune

A month ago, a reader asked the question: What happens if the New Orleans Saints win the rest of their games and the Atlanta Falcons lose only their Week 16 date with New Orleans, leaving them tied atop the NFC South at 13-3?

I told him two things: One, the Falcons would win the tiebreaker, leaving the Saints as an overqualified No. 5 seed. And two, he was nuts.

Maybe I was wrong.

The two NFC South rivals didn't blink in November -- which Coach Sean Payton has said is historically known as a critical month in the NFL.

The Falcons (9-2, 2-0 in the NFC South) have won five consecutive games, and the Saints (8-3, 3-1) have won four in a row.

The Saints came up with their most dramatic come-from-behind win of the season last Thursday at Dallas. Then the Falcons followed up with a dramatic last-minute win against Green Bay on Sunday.

Payton said he watched the Falcons' game against the Packers, "like I'm sure everyone did, " during a rare weekend when he got to spend time watching college and pro games after the Saints' Thanksgiving Day appearance.

"It ended up being as close and as good a matchup as was billed. And credit Atlanta for coming back and putting themselves in position to win the game with the kick return, " Payton said of the Falcons' 20-17 victory.

While it was intriguing to get a glimpse of the competition, Payton said he reminded the team to keep its focus on this week's trip to Cincinnati when the Saints went back to work Monday for a light practice that was closed to the media.

"I think even this morning in the team meeting, we said, 'When you look, there's just so much football to be played, '" Payton said. "We've got to constantly remind them and focus on the short term, and I think players understand that. Just go around the NFC and you see teams, Green Bay competing with Chicago (in the NFC North) and the Giants and Eagles in a tough battle (in the NFC East), and you see Tampa Bay in a tough battle with Baltimore that they had a chance to win (on Sunday).

"It's really shaping up that way in the NFC, with this last month and a half being critical."

There is still plenty of time for the standings to shift. Atlanta is about to embark on a three-game road trip to Tampa Bay, Carolina and Seattle before hosting the Saints on Monday night in Week 16 and wrapping up at home against the Panthers.

But the Saints' margin for error is disappearing rapidly.

Even if the Saints win the rest of their games and beat the Falcons in Week 16, they would still need Atlanta to lose one more game. If both teams finish 12-4 or 11-5, with the Saints beating the Falcons, the Saints would need to finish with a better division record to finish ahead. If both teams finish with the same overall record and the same division record, Atlanta will win a common opponent tiebreaker.

It's entirely possible that the Saints will win 12 or 13 games and still have to hit the road in the first round of the playoffs against an NFC West champion with a losing record.

But first things first -- the Saints need to keep taking care of business to make sure they at least wrap up a wild-card spot.

There are seven NFC teams with records of 7-4 or better, with only five playoff spots available. One of them is Tampa Bay, which seems to be masquerading as a contender with an 0-4 record against teams with winning records. But if the Buccaneers get hot, they can still shake up the NFC South race.

An 11-5 record would probably get the Saints into the playoffs, but it's no guarantee.

Here's what's left on the schedule:

Week 13: Sunday at Cincinnati (2-9)

The Bengals have been one of the NFL's most disappointing teams this year, and they appear to be collapsing as the season goes along. They've lost eight consecutive games. But the Saints have lost some games to some struggling teams this year, and this isn't exactly a "gimmie." The Bengals still have a dangerous passing attack with quarterback Carson Palmer and receivers Terrell Owens, Chad Ochocinco and Jordan Shipley. And the Saints will be in some unfamiliar circumstances outdoors in Cincinnati, where the early forecast calls for a high of 36 degrees.

Week 14: Dec. 12 vs. St. Louis (5-6)

The Saints should be heavily favored in this game, too. But the Rams are a team on the rise under rookie quarterback Sam Bradford. They are tied for the West lead after a 36-33 win at Denver last week. And they caused some problems for New Orleans last year with veteran power runner Steven Jackson.

Week 15: Dec. 19 at Baltimore (8-3)

This could be the toughest game on the Saints' remaining schedule, considering the opponent and the weather. The Ravens have been inconsistent on offense under the direction of young quarterback Joe Flacco, but they're still stacked with talent. Though their defense is no longer in its prime, it remains one of the toughest units in the NFL, led by defensive end Haloti Ngata, safety Ed Reed and linebackers Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs.

Week 16: Dec. 27 at Atlanta (9-2)

Obviously, this looms as the biggest game of the Saints' season. The first matchup in New Orleans in Week 3 lived up to the hype, with the Falcons winning 27-24 in overtime after Saints kicker Garrett Hartley missed a 29-yard field-goal attempt. If that kicked had sailed through the uprights, their roles would be reversed.

Atlanta's third-year quarterback Matt Ryan has developed into one of the steadiest quarterbacks in the NFL. His top target, receiver Roddy White, is one of the biggest playmakers in the league. And a solid run game and defense make this one of the league's most well-rounded teams.

They've been surviving some close games this year, winning three of them in the final minute. But they have a knack for pulling them out, especially at home, where Ryan is 19-1 in his career.

Week 17: Jan. 2 vs. Tampa Bay (7-4)

The Buccaneers have made an impressive leap this year after finishing 3-13 last season. Second-year quarterback Josh Freeman has matured quickly into a tough competitor, rookie receiver Mike Williams is a breakout playmaker, and the defense has been opportunistic all year. But Tampa Bay has struggled against the best teams, including a 31-6 rout by the Saints at Tampa in Week 6.

WILL SMITH UPDATE: The hearing for defensive end Will Smith, originally set for 11 a.m. Monday, was cancelled after Smith posted bond.

Lafayette police booked Smith into jail Saturday night on charges of simple battery and domestic abuse.

Paul Mouton, Lafayette P.D. public information officer, said the police arrested Smith after observing an argument between him and his wife, Racquel Smith.

Mouton said officers regularly patrol Lafayette's downtown district because of the large number of bars and nightclubs in the area.

"Our officers will typically stand either on or by the roadway and observe people exiting to ensure there's no fights, " Mouton said.

Officers patrolling on Jefferson Street noticed a couple having an argument around 2 a.m. as the bars emptied out, Mouton said.

"In this case, they observed that there was an argument between a male and female but didn't identify who it was at the time, " Mouton said. "They saw it turn physical, and noticed the suspect, later identified as Mr. Smith, grab the victim by the hair where he began pulling her down the sidewalk area on Jefferson Street."

Mouton said the officers intervened at that point and booked Smith. Racquel Smith reported having only minor injuries.

Said Payton: "I think right now as a team we just wait for the process to take its course and we also understand it being a league matter and go from there."

. . . . . . . .

Mike Triplett can be reached at mtriplett@timespicayune.com or 504.826.3405.

Related topics: new orleans saints vs. cincinnati bengals

[dmo_dlo]

(11-30-2010 12:27 PM)g-dawg Wrote:  I also think that if Saints beat Falcons that they could run the table - only other hard game is @ Ravens but hey - give Saints their due - they could win that game.....they definitely could win it.

I expect the Saints to have their hands full with CIN. I actually think there is a good chance CIN would beat them.

[g-dawg]

so, basically we are in this position with Saints:

tiebreakers:
1) head-to-head (at least a tie)
2) division record (still to be determined)
3) common opponents (Falcons win this already)

So, obviously its certainly possible that Saints could overtake us but if we win all games except for Saints, then we have everything locked up - NFC South and #1 seed.

Above assumes we "win-out" except for Saints - which is a big ass assumption.

[Birdbrain]

(11-30-2010 12:46 PM)dmo_dlo Wrote:  I expect the Saints to have their hands full with CIN. I actually think there is a good chance CIN would beat them.

Could be.Cold,outside,a little wind,weak running game.It could happen.

[g-dawg]

(11-30-2010 12:46 PM)dmo_dlo Wrote:  I expect the Saints to have their hands full with CIN. I actually think there is a good chance CIN would beat them.

its possible but I don't like "hoping" another team will lose and being disappointed when they don't - for example, last week when we all thought the Cowboys had beaten the Saints and then here comes the Roy Williams fumble.

Don't hold your breath on Ben-Gals beating Saints - or even the Ravens or anybody else.

good chance that Falcons could lose to the Bucs/Seahawks too........

let's just look at what the Falcons have to do "for sure" to achieve all they want to achieve. Obviously nothing we speculate on matters - its up to the players/coaches but this is at least fun to think about.

---

(11-30-2010 12:39 PM)TonyGraziani Wrote:  Ah, gotcha. The 3 common opponents I can think of off the top of my head at this point are PITT, ARI, and CLE. We are 2-1 to their 1-2 off of those alone

EDIT: plus SF its 3-1 to 2-2. They still have games with Cincy, STL, and BAL, while we still play SEA. If we both win out, then we only have 1 loss to their 2.

other common opponents that they will have:
St. Louis Rams (Falcons won already - Saints host Rams)
Seattle Seahawks (Saints won already - Falcons @ Seahawks)
Baltimore Ravens (Falcons won already - Saints go to Baltimore)
Cincinnati Bengals (Falcons won already - Saints go to Cincy)

and in the NFC South:
Falcons - @ Tampa, @ Carolina, vs. Saints, vs. Carolina
Saints - vs. Tampa