An In-Depth Play Analysis - 4th and 3 on Car 4

[Radical]

Something I threw together in the past 10 minutes just because the play had been sitting in my head the past few days. I'm going to do a quick run down of the 4th and 3 play we failed to convert through the air yesterday.

4th and 3 on the 4.

Offense - Shotgun, 3WRs 1 TE, Trips left(Roddy(rear left), Jenkins(front and center), and Finneran(rear right)), right slot(Gonzalez), Turner in the backfield to Ryan's right.

Roddy runs a speed out
Jenkins runs a corner route.
Finneran blocks
Gonzalez runs a quick slant
Turner blocks
Ryan rolls left

The progression seems to be Roddy, Jenkins, Gonzalez, run/improvise. The formation forces the defense to collapse inside and play honest. You cannot double anyone or flood anywhere without just leaving yourself open to be burned.



Panthers rush 5 and have one player that bumps Jenkins and then trails Ryan. Both Roddy and Gonzalez are immediately left open one on one. Jenkins' route also plays as clearout for Gonzalez by drawing the safety and LBs on his side of the field away and towards the back of the endzone. Because Ryan sees Roddy open immediately on the speed out, he doesn't even bother looking anywhere else. If you were Ryan, and you saw Roddy that open, would you stop to look around the field? The answer there is a resounding **** no, that's about as good of a situation as you can realistically get in the NFL.



What went wrong? Simple execution. Ryan rolled out, didn't set his feet, and just over threw the ball by a few feet. The formation did its job, the receivers got open, Ryan had the time he needed, and everything that was needed was there. This just shows the difference a few feet can make in the NFL. Hopefully Ryan will have this down before our play-off game.

[Anomaly]

He has hit that type of route a ton of times before so I'm not worried that he messed up once.

[cooperbh]

The big issue I had with that play call is that the first read wasn't Matt Bryant attempting a gimme field goal.

[harveybirdman]

plus one for the telestrating dude...

awesome.

[Radical]

(01-04-2011 04:19 PM)cooperbh Wrote:  The big issue I had with that play call is that the first read wasn't Matt Bryant attempting a gimme field goal.

Worst case scenario is that the Panthers get the ball on the 4 yard line. Best case scenario is a TD.

Is anyone afraid of the Panthers with 96 yards of field to cover? I know I wouldn't be, and Mike Smith wasn't either.

[juraitwaluzka]

Great breakdown, love it!

As for not kicking the FG, when you are already up by two scores over the worst team in the league you can be more aggressive and take more risks. Smitty thought we could risk coming away with zero and still win big. He was right. It didn't cost us. It didn't even almost cost us so I don't really see what the big deal is.

There has never been an NFL game where everything worked. Hell there has only been one in college (Ga Tech 222 Cumberland 0)

[harveybirdman]

I don't understand not going for it here.... it's 4th and 2 you are deep in their territory and you have a chance to blow the game open...

good call

[Radical]

(01-04-2011 05:04 PM)juraitwaluzka Wrote:  Hell there has only been one in college (Ga Tech 222 Cumberland 0)

I thought that was a typo when I read that and looked it up...

My God...

[Jesus]

(01-04-2011 04:19 PM)cooperbh Wrote:  The big issue I had with that play call is that the first read wasn't Matt Bryant attempting a gimme field goal.

Whatever
This is where you practice these sorts of plays. No room for error in the playoffs.

[BrockSamson]

Great break down. It'd be awesome to see more of these.

I know we've run similar plays to success in the past, but I hate roll out plays on gotta-have-it downs, and I really hate roll outs to the left (the Ravens game be damned!).

As you've shown, the play creates the needed separation, but inherently adds the added difficulty of a right handed QB trying to throw while moving to his left. It also cuts off half the field.