A Troubling Statistical Trend

[cooperbh]

(01-23-2011 02:27 PM)illmusic Wrote:  help me out here. how are we sure that the yards after contact are cause of the line and not of Turner's running style?

Primarily because of what my eyes have told me when watching our running game in action the past couple of seasons. I just haven't seen Turner getting the holes he got in 2008.

Don't get me wrong, Turner has and always will be a heavy YAC RB. But more recently, he has been getting hit by defensive linemen instead of linebackers and safeties and without the momentum needed to take it much further after first contact. The big drops in YPC and YAC average while still leading the league in carries and YAC yards merely support that.

Another RB I watched a good bit this season with a similar one-cut-and-go style as Turner is Arian Foster. Like Turner, he also didn't have a very high YAC average (2.6.) But he didn't need one, as only 52% of his rushing yardage came after contact (as compared to 69% for Turner.) I remember thinking several times during the season what I wouldn't give to have an O-line like the Texans' to open up all those gaping holes for Turner.

But even if the problem is all on Turners' running style, it's clear we can't keep using him in the same manner, series after series if we wish to have success in the running game. He needs help back there.

[cooperbh]

(01-23-2011 03:14 PM)Beef Wrote:  if you're cooper, who's always right...

Now you're getting it.

[Jesus]

I think in the end the scheme really hurt Turners numbers and eventually the team offense as a whole. In 98 when JA32 put up his great season, he ran a lot like Turner, he had huge holes in the line, not because the line was better, it was not, but because the deep ball and play action kept the defense honest. If Jam was held up at the line and the box was filled, Chandler threw the ball up to Martin or Mathis, they both averaged almost 18 ypc. White, Jenks and Gonzo averaged: 12.1, 12.3 & 9.1 respectively.

Every year in this offense we keep going backwards in yards per catch. Ryan has been going 13.0 to 11.1 to 10.4. Thats with the same receiving weapons every year, except Gonzo who has gone down each year he has been here. He has seen his two worst years for ypc since coming to Atlanta. It's not him it's the system.

[Beef]

(01-23-2011 04:30 PM)Jesus Wrote:  I think in the end the scheme really hurt Turners numbers and eventually the team offense as a whole. In 98 when JA32 put up his great season, he ran a lot like Turner, he had huge holes in the line, not because the line was better, it was not, but because the deep ball and play action kept the defense honest. If Jam was held up at the line and the box was filled, Chandler threw the ball up to Martin or Mathis, they both averaged almost 18 ypc. White, Jenks and Gonzo averaged: 12.1, 12.3 & 9.1 respectively.

Every year in this offense we keep going backwards in yards per catch. Ryan has been going 13.0 to 11.1 to 10.4. Thats with the same receiving weapons every year, except Gonzo who has gone down each year he has been here. He has seen his two worst years for ypc since coming to Atlanta. It's not him it's the system.

Ding ding ding! Someone else gets it.

But wait, the god of this forum says it's all the O-line's fault, so you must be completely wrong. Back to the drawing board.

[Radical]

(01-23-2011 05:22 PM)Beef Wrote:  Ding ding ding! Someone else gets it.

But wait, the god of this forum says it's all the O-line's fault, so you must be completely wrong. Back to the drawing board.

Get over yourself. Boo hoo, someone disagrees with me and they're going to argue their point. No need to slob someone's knob any time someone comes along who agrees with you. Get off your high horse and either play the game or don't bother replying.

[Beef]

(01-23-2011 05:40 PM)Radical Wrote:  Get over yourself. Boo hoo, someone disagrees with me and they're going to argue their point. No need to slob someone's knob any time someone comes along who agrees with you. Get off your high horse and either play the game or don't bother replying.

What's your problem? You & I actually agree on this topic. In fact, this all started when you essentially said the same thing I did in another thread, I backed you up, & cooper dropped a slew of condescending sarcastic pompous absolutes acting like there's a 100% certainty to blame & it's his say so or nothing.

I've listed off a half dozen possibilities why our offense wasn't as successful as we hoped & he's blamed it 100% on the O-line & then bashed me for suggesting that's only a part of it. I think I have every right to defend my position & dish some of the crap back at him.

You & I don't always see eye to eye, but don't let that cause you to go this route. Let cooper fight his own fights.

[Radical]

(01-23-2011 05:52 PM)Beef Wrote:  What's your problem? You & I actually agree on this topic. In fact, this all started when you essentially said the same thing I did in another thread, I backed you up, & cooper dropped a slew of condescending sarcastic pompous absolutes acting like there's a 100% certainty to blame & it's his say so or nothing.

I've listed off a half dozen possibilities why our offense wasn't as successful as we hoped & he's blamed it 100% on the O-line & then bashed me for suggesting that's only a part of it. I think I have every right to defend my position & dish some of the crap back at him.

You & I don't always see eye to eye, but don't let that cause you to go this route. Let cooper fight his own fights.

Never really got into that thread. I agreed with some of what both you guys were saying.

Both of you, as well as me, can get insulting in heated "debates". You seem to get upset any time someone disagrees with you in multiple threads. You did it with me, and now him.

I don't know about him, but it doesn't seem personal. As dickish as I am about it, you don't have to be like that over it. I doubt he goes about it as "he's always right."

I'm looking for a clean football fight here folks. No complaining, sarcastic remarks are cool.

[Beef]

(01-23-2011 07:07 PM)Radical Wrote:  Never really got into that thread. I agreed with some of what both you guys were saying.

Both of you, as well as me, can get insulting in heated "debates". You seem to get upset any time someone disagrees with you in multiple threads. You did it with me, and now him.

I don't know about him, but it doesn't seem personal. As dickish as I am about it, you don't have to be like that over it. I doubt he goes about it as "he's always right."

I'm looking for a clean football fight here folks. No complaining, sarcastic remarks are cool.

Well it seems like a trend with people who get all pompous, condescending, & sarcastic trying to declare absolutes suggesting they are right & any contradiction is wrong while being a dick about it at the same time & me standing up to that guy vigorously. When you & I were all at each other, it was because you INSISTED that Jenkins sucked & was worthless to this team & you were acting the exact same way.

Funny, how wrong you were. Well, coop is acting like & doing the same thing. And I have every right to defend the other side with just as much conviction.

That said, I'm not surprised that even though you agree more so with my point of view on this, you're still defending the sarcastic know-it-all who's asserting absolutes & jumping on the guy willing to defend the other side of the argument. You say you don't want any complaining but that's exactly what you're doing.

[illmusic]

I think a lot of things change with a revamped line. For example the decreased deep shots can be illustrated by poor o-line play. This could correlate towards the decrease in yards per catch and attempt and completion. It's not necessarily only the o-line that's the problem, but most likely the o-line is where all the problems START.

[Beef]

(01-23-2011 08:01 PM)illmusic Wrote:  I think a lot of things change with a revamped line. For example the decreased deep shots can be illustrated by poor o-line play. This could correlate towards the decrease in yards per catch and attempt and completion. It's not necessarily only the o-line that's the problem, but most likely the o-line is where all the problems START.

That only makes sense IF we actually had a deep threat receiving corps. Heck, even Roddy isn't a speedster who can blow by CB's with ease. HD is our only 4.3 speed receiver. The problem is, every time we put him on the outside & he did exactly that, simply run right past the CB, he dropped the pass.

It's extremely difficult to say the O-line is at fault for no deep passes when we really don't have any deep threats & when Roddy does go deep he's usually double-covered.