A Troubling Statistical Trend

[JDaveG]

(01-22-2011 10:17 AM)ggp Wrote:  I believe that we already have three players on the roster that will outplay Dahl next season. Both Valdez and Reynolds are listed as tackles but both will be ready to slide in to the RG position next season. And, if push comes to shove, Clabo is clearly a better RG candidate than Dahl (clearly, we would rather keep him at RT).

Garrett Reynolds was a beast at UNC. I've suspected for a while he ends up at RT and they slide Clabo in to RG, though Clabo's Pro Bowl bid may argue against that.

[cooperbh]

(01-22-2011 07:21 AM)Nuccah Wrote:  I don't think it has as much to do with our OL as everyone is assuming.

Turner has lost a step since 2008. He also hasn't been as reckless, focusing more on holding onto the football with both hands. We've all seen that same thing.

The holes have been there. Turner just hasn't had the same speed to reach them than he had in 08 IMO.

While I agree that Turner has lost a bit of a step and was worn down by the end of the season, the number of holes I have seen that he has had to run through over the last two years has definitely diminished. The fact that both his YPC and YAC average have dropped so dramatically clearly shows that he is getting tackled closer to the line of scrimmage than he was two seasons ago.

Now, I might be able to buy that this is all a result of Turner being too slow to hit the open holes if not for games like the ones he had against Cleveland and Cincinnati, in which he exploded for long chunks of yardage seemingly at will. You don't finish a game with a 6-8 YPC average if you can't hit the holes with urgency when they are open.

Turner can still be highly effective. He just needs to get a little help from his line.

[juraitwaluzka]

I do remember reading where Turner said the only defense to play him straight up this year was Cleveland.

[cooperbh]

(01-22-2011 09:08 AM)Jesus Wrote:  As for contact? That's how Turner runs. He isn't Barry Sanders who went every direction possible in order to find a hole. Turner just bowls right through. He's not the first back to run like that and he wont be the last. The team needs someone to remain healthy and take carries away so he remains fresher all season. We haven't had three healthyish backs for more than ten games since 2008. See the pattern.

This is true. But part of the reason for Turner's straight-ahead tendencies is predicated on the line. They lack the lateral agility to pull for sweeps. They don't have the athleticism to get down field for screens. And what happens every time we try to run a reverse? Those 14 yard losses don't occur because HD isn't quick enough to get to the corner. Draw plays? Kinda hard to pull off when the center is getting pushed backward and the tackles can't drive defenders out and around on passing plays. What's left is strictly one-cut-and-go.

Which is fine. Your line still needs to open holes for it to work, though. When we see Turner trying to plow through a wall of defenders on 1st and 10, that is not by design.

[takeitdown]

As with everything in football it winds up being a combo. Turner is extraordinary when the line can create a large hole for him, and he just has to power through arm tackles and secondary tackles. That's where he racks up his yardage.

Conversely, he's quite poor at adjusting if the hole shifts, and getting to the new space. His lateral agility is nil. He also has a lot of trouble bouncing it outside.

Those things combine to let defenses crash inside, not worrying about outside contain, or misdirection/second moves. This post is also useful because it shows we're not quite the running team people like to say. We're about the 25th best at running, we just do it a lot. If those runs become more efficient (higher YPC), it sets up the offense more favorably in general.

So, we either need a top top OL, that can create large holes, and let Turner punish the second level, or we need a back who can navigate a bit more. In actuality both would be nice. I'd gladly sacrifice a little of Turner's bowling ballness, for a bit more lateral agility (so, more like a Jonathan Stewart.) However, our interior does need to improve, because they are also what keeps Ryan from having a clean pocket.

You can never go wrong getting a dominant interior OL. Then you can have a running game no matter who you put in there.

I feel, as cooperbh seems to, that we need to get a true everydown back to split the carries with Turner, and have it be one with a bit more lateral agility and pass catching ability, but who can still cut it up the middle. Then split the carries down the middle. It will prolong Turner and prepare the next in line. A third down back is nice, and we need one, but an all around back is more important right now (and he can also fill the 3rd down role).

[cooperbh]

(01-22-2011 03:45 PM)takeitdown Wrote:  As with everything in football it winds up being a combo. Turner is extraordinary when the line can create a large hole for him, and he just has to power through arm tackles and secondary tackles. That's where he racks up his yardage.

Conversely, he's quite poor at adjusting if the hole shifts, and getting to the new space. His lateral agility is nil. He also has a lot of trouble bouncing it outside.

Those things combine to let defenses crash inside, not worrying about outside contain, or misdirection/second moves. This post is also useful because it shows we're not quite the running team people like to say. We're about the 25th best at running, we just do it a lot. If those runs become more efficient (higher YPC), it sets up the offense more favorably in general.

So, we either need a top top OL, that can create large holes, and let Turner punish the second level, or we need a back who can navigate a bit more. In actuality both would be nice. I'd gladly sacrifice a little of Turner's bowling ballness, for a bit more lateral agility (so, more like a Jonathan Stewart.) However, our interior does need to improve, because they are also what keeps Ryan from having a clean pocket.

You can never go wrong getting a dominant interior OL. Then you can have a running game no matter who you put in there.

I feel, as cooperbh seems to, that we need to get a true everydown back to split the carries with Turner, and have it be one with a bit more lateral agility and pass catching ability, but who can still cut it up the middle. Then split the carries down the middle. It will prolong Turner and prepare the next in line. A third down back is nice, and we need one, but an all around back is more important right now (and he can also fill the 3rd down role).

That's precisely it. Well said.

[cooperbh]

(01-22-2011 10:17 AM)ggp Wrote:  Thank you Cooper for bringing these stats to the board. Clearly, Turner has been the key to our offense for the past three seasons. The interior OL has been a problem for some time now and I think that TD has seen this. He has been setting up a slow and natural evolution that should come to light this offseason. While Baker and Clabo will likely man their positions next season, I expect to see some changes along the interior line.

Blalock should be retained. He has been a good run blocker but his pass blocking and awareness have clearly improved. As Baker has struggled, Blalock has covered Baker's interior very well. As he enters the prime of his career,I look forward to seeing Blalock turn into one of the best OG's in the league.

McClure has always been a scrappy smaller Center that plays above his head. His intelligence and dedication are a credit to his character. Having said that, I think we all know that the bell is tolling on his career. I don't know how many more years we can expect from Todd. This is the position that concerns me most. I hear that both draft picks from last year have experience at Center, but it is tough to find an OL leader like McClure.

Dahl has been a good story but his time is up. As has been mentioned before, he has not been opening running lanes for our RB's and he is not adept at pass protection. I believe that we already have three players on the roster that will outplay Dahl next season. Both Valdez and Reynolds are listed as tackles but both will be ready to slide in to the RG position next season. And, if push comes to shove, Clabo is clearly a better RG candidate than Dahl (clearly, we would rather keep him at RT). Mike Johnson was drafted for the Guard positioin, but I wonder whether he will be ready next year. I thank Dahl for his services and the attitude he brought to the OL, but it is time for a change here.

I actually think Baker is the biggest problem on the O-line right now. He almost lost his job to a street FA early in the season and his "turnaround" in the second half was largely due to protection schemes. Having a LT that can be relied on to operate on an island would bolster what we could do with this line immensely.

[ggp]

(01-22-2011 04:12 PM)cooperbh Wrote:  I actually think Baker is the biggest problem on the O-line right now. He almost lost his job to a street FA early in the season and his "turnaround" in the second half was largely due to protection schemes. Having a LT that can be relied on to operate on an island would bolster what we could do with this line immensely.

You may be right. Our FO is so secretive about injuries, it is hard to tell whether Baker's performances are due to an undisclosed injury. I heard the rumors about Svitek replacing Baker, but I wonder how accurate those accounts were.

If, by some miracle a player like Sherrod should fall to the 27th pick, I would not mind drafting him and starting him at LT. The real question is where Baker would fit in. I don't see him as an interior OL. I have read that some fans would like to see him move to LG. Does he have the power to handle DT's? I don't know. .

We have discussed a lot of possibilities. It should be kept in mind that wholesale changes of any OL can be disastrous. I would really love to have first class OT's to protect Ryan, but I don't see that happening this offseason. For now, I'd concentrate on upgrading the interior OL and leave our bookends as they are.

[illmusic]

help me out here. how are we sure that the yards after contact are cause of the line and not of Turner's running style?

[Beef]

(01-23-2011 02:27 PM)illmusic Wrote:  help me out here. how are we sure that the yards after contact are cause of the line and not of Turner's running style?

It's obviously a combination of both, but if you're cooper, who's always right, then it's 100% our overwhelmingly horrible piece of shit O-line.