Last season, at the start of training camp, I made very early predictions for every team in the NFC South, going through each individual game. Not to toot my own horn, but I ended up fairly close with my predictions (See the predictions here). I had the division finishing as follows:
Atlanta - 11-5
New Orleans - 11-5
Carolina - 10-6
Tampa Bay - 5-11
I missed every teams final record by 2 games, mainly by over predicting all but New Orleans, who I sold short. As for the actual games, my records were:
Atlanta - 14-2 (Got wrong Dallas & the home game against New Orleans)
New Orleans - 10-6 (Missed Philadelphia, both Tampa Bay games, New England, second Atlanta game, & Dallas)
Carolina - 9-7 (Missed Philadelphia, Buffalo, Arizona, Miami, NY Jets, Minnesota, & NY Giants)
Tampa Bay - 12-4 (Got wrong Miami, switched the New Orleans games, and the NY Jets)
That put me at 45-19, or 70% correct. Not bad for predictions made at the end of July. This season, I’m only making predictions for the Falcons games, but with that in mind, here are my predictions for each game this season for the Falcons. As always, these are baring injuries to major players.
@ Pittsburgh - The Steelers are starting the season without Roethlisberger, and have no Willie Parker or Willie Colon (RT). What does that mean for the Steelers offense? Either Dennis Dixon or Byron Leftwich handing of to Rashard Mendenhall and throwing to Hines Ward while Flozell Adams tries to block. Not a good recipe for their Offense. Defense keeps it close, but Falcons start their third straight season with a win.
vs Arizona - Without Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin, this isn’t the same team. As good as Fitzgerald is, Leinart still has to get him the ball. Robinson gets first INT for the Falcons in a win.
@ New Orleans - I can try to look at Falcons games with an unbiased eyee, but I have to admit I hate the Saints. I also hate the fact that Atlanta (at least lately) seems to always go to New Orleans before the come here. Ok, enough of a rant. Facts - New Orleans is coming off a Super Bowl run. They just had 2 tough games against Minnesota and San Fran. Atlanta has a tough time winning in New Orleans. That continues. Falcons fall to 2-1.
vs San Francisco - Two things I know about last season: Atlanta never looked better than when they played San Fran, and San Fran rarely looked as bad. Very tough game this season, and if it were in the Bay I’d give the nod to the 49ers. At home, however, I’ll give it to the Falcons by a field goal.
@ Cleveland - Who starts for the Browns, Delhomme or McCoy? Either way, Holmgren hasn’t gotten this team close to where he wants. Falcons win in the Dog Pound.
@ Philadelphia - Who thinks Mike Smith has forgotten Andy Reed purposely using Mike Vick more against the Falcons than any other team? He hasn’t. Falcons will be more pumped for this game than any other and, if they get the chance, will run the score up. Also, I’m not impressed with Kolb yet. Falcons take the game, maybe by doble digits.
vs Cincinnati - I don’t think Cincinnati will be able to hold up too well as the season rolls on, I think their locker room will be in turmoil by seasons end (TO + OchoCinco isn’t good for any team). However, I think they’ll have just enough to send an emotionally drained Falcons team to 5-2 going into the bye.
BYE - Love the middle of the season byes, good chance to heal those small, nagging injuries.
vs Tampa Bay - I don’t think the Bucs will be as bad as a lot of people are saying. However, I don’t think they’ll be able to get by a rested Falcons team in Atlanta either.
vs Baltimore - Ahh, the battle of the 2008 First Round QBs. I admit, at the time of the draft, I was hoping Atlanta would end up with Jake Long and draft Flacco later. We got Ryan and Baker instead and got who I now think is the better QB. Flacco seems to lean on his D more than Ryan (last season, what D?), but that same D is getting a little old. They show signs of their age and fall to the Falcons in Atlanta.
@ St. Louis - During the next 5 games for the Falcons, 4 are on the road. This first one shouldn’t be too tough, the Rams have the potential for a good QB, but no one to throw the ball to or block for him. They’ll lean on Stephen Jackson for a while, but that won’t work when they fall behind. Falcons win easily.
vs Green Bay - Toughest game during this stretch, but it’s at home. Should serve as a little boost, and Rodgers can be streaky. After a tough game in Minnesota, Green Bay doesn’t have enough to keep up with the Falcons, who rise up to 8-2.
@ Tampa Bay - Home game for Tampa after traveling to Baltimore, road game for Atlanta after hosting Green Bay. Both teams will be a little beat up, but Atlanta, the superior team, will find a way to win.
@ Carolina - I really don’t think Carolina is as bad as people are thinking, they still have a great rushing tandem, Fox has yet to have consecutive “Down Seasons”, and they are usually better in the second half. Falcons fall to 9-3.
@ Seattle - Last road game of the season, and it’s against a coach I don’t think will cut it in the NFL. Carroll is a great recruiter, but that doesn’t help in the NFL. Atlanta wins here and has a chance to make it their last road game, including the playoffs.
vs New Orleans - New Orleans is a good team, and I think they have as good a chance as any to end the NFC South’s streak of no team winning back-to-back division crowns. However, they don’t as Atlanta locks up the division after getting to 12-3.
vs Carolina - Atlanta has already locked up the division and a first round by. What do they have to play for? Number 1 overall seed, division rival, possibly even a chance to knock the Panthers out of a playoff spot? Motivation enough as Atlanta wins, but rests their starters late.
Season Prediction - 13-3, First in the NFC South and Number 1 seed in the NFC.
And just for fun, other quick NFC Prediticns:
NFC North: Minnesota - 12-4
NFC East: Dallas - 11-5
NFC West: San Francisco - 9-7
Wild Card: New Orleans - 11-5
Wild Card: Carolina - 10-6
Source >> Atlanta Falcons Blogs